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wedrifid comments on Exploiting the Typical Mind Fallacy for more accurate questioning? - Less Wrong Discussion

31 Post author: Xachariah 17 July 2012 12:46AM

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Comment author: wedrifid 17 July 2012 10:49:31PM 2 points [-]

Eg, most employers ask "have you ever stolen from a job before," and have to deal with misreporting because nobody in their right mind will say yes. However, imagine if the typical mind fallacy was correct. The employers could instead ask "what do you think the percentage of employees who have stolen from their job is?" and know that the applicants who responded higher than average were correspondingly more likely to steal, and the applicants who responded lower than average were less likely to cheat. It could cut through all sorts of social desirability distortion effects. You couldn't get the exact likelihood, but it would give more useful information than you would get with a direct question.

An employer asking either of those questions of me would drastically increase the chance that I would steal from them. Priming, conveying that the norm for people in my situation is some amount of stealing, etc. At very least it would prompt me to speculate on how best to steal if I happened to want to do so.