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Viliam_Bur comments on Exploiting the Typical Mind Fallacy for more accurate questioning? - Less Wrong Discussion

31 Post author: Xachariah 17 July 2012 12:46AM

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Comment author: Viliam_Bur 18 July 2012 04:34:27AM 3 points [-]

people who frequently accuse partners of being unfaithful without evidence are generally those who are cheating themselves or have cheated in the past.

I would guess that people who were cheated upon by their former partners also have increased the prior probability of someone cheating on them.

That's generally the problem with this type of reasoning. A strategy used to find a perpetrator by exploring familiarity with the crime, may also find a victim. If you overestimate the probability of people stealing, you may be a thief... or a victim of theft.