The technology already exists for hundreds or thousands of deaths, you will grant; but they are not obviously being used, and instances where unusual methods are being used are low body counts (the 2001 anthrax attacks). Given that the spree killers are not already using them, why would we expect this this change?
Are you arguing either that even a small probability of a spree killer using them is too much when the damage could run into the hundreds of thousands, or that the increasing capabilities themselves will increase the probability?
I'm wondering how much damage a guy like this could do in the future if he decided to kill as many people as possible. I figured that some readers would have a strong enough life science background to be able to make a reasonable estimate.
A Ph.D student in neuroscience shot at least 50 people at a showing of the new Batman movie. He also appears to have released some kind of gas from a canister. Because of his educational background this person almost certainly knows a lot about molecular biology. How long will it be (if ever) before a typical bio-science Ph.D will have the capacity to kill, say,a million people?
Edit: I'm not claiming that this event should cause a fully informed person to update on anything. Rather I was hoping that readers of this blog with strong life-science backgrounds could provide information that would help me and other interested readers assess the probability of future risks. Since this blog often deals with catastrophic risks and the social harms of irrationality and given that the events I described will likely dominate the U.S. news media for a few days I thought my question worth asking. Given the post's Karma rating (currently -4), however, I will update my beliefs about what constitutes an appropriate discussion post.