private_messaging comments on Work on Security Instead of Friendliness? - Less Wrong Discussion
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A careful reading of my own comment would have revealed my references to the US as only one heavily lawyered society (useful for an upper bound on lawyer density, and representing a large portion of the developed world and legal population), and to the low population of past centuries (which make them of lesser importance for a population estimate), indicating that I was talking about the total over time and space (above some threshold of intelligence) as well.
I was presenting figures as the start of an estimate of long term lawyer population, and to indicate that to get "millions" one could not pick a high percentile within the population of lawyers, problematic given the intelligence of even 90th percentile attorneys.
And why one should pick a high percentile, exactly, if the priors for high percentiles are proportionally low and strong evidence is absent? What's wrong with assuming 'somewhat above median', i.e. close to 50th percentile? Why is that even really harsh?
Extreme standardized testing (after adjusting for regression to the mean), successful writer (by hits, readers, reviews; even vocabulary, which is fairly strongly associated with intelligence in large statistical samples), impressing top philosophers with his decision theory work, impressing very smart and influential people (e.g. Peter Thiel) in real-time conversation.
It would be harsh to a graduate student from a top hard science program or law school. The median attorney figure in the US today, let alone over the world and history, is just not that high.
The TDT paper from 2012 reads like popularization of something, not like normal science paper on some formalized theory. I don't think impressing 'top philosophers' is impressive.
Or to a writer that gets royalties larger than typical lawyer. Or a smart and influential person, e.g. Peter Thiel.
But a blogger that successfully talked small-ish percentage of people he could reach, into giving him money for work on AI? That's hardly the evidence to sway 0.0001 prior. I do concede though that median lawyer might be unable to do that (but I dunno - only small percentage would be self deluded or bad enough to try). The world is full of pseudoscientists, cranks, and hustlers that manage this, and more, and who do not seem to be particularly bright.