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Trevor_Blake comments on What are your questions about making a difference? - Less Wrong Discussion
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I am glad to see evidence-based evaluations of charitable work and I hope it continues. My question: which charities state their terms of surrender? An imaginary example: if the Fencing Scholarship for Left-Handers does not see a recipient in the Olympics within 50 years, we will disband and give our remaining resources to the General Fencing Scholarship.
My guess is few charities will consider it possible their cause will not succeed even on their own terms of success.
Good question. We tend to take our charity evaluation from Givewell (though we've started our evaluation in some areas). So, we wouldn't be able to easily answer this. I don't think we've ever come across a charity which openly states its terms of surrender. What I can say is that the charities that tend to get recommended have a very focused method (e.g. distributing malaria nets) with a measurable outcome (less malaria), so it's pretty obvious if their failing, and that would cause them to lose funding.
I could be mistaken and I hope you will correct me of I am wrong. That sounds like equating a measurable outcome with success. Like a company that invested five hundred dollars, made a penny, and called itself profitable. A profit was made, but... no. One net distributed, one life saved, I will not say that's no good at any cost. But some bottom line of failure, of surrender, should be part of the evaluation. Charities that crow the most about 'raising awareness' or prayer are the worst offenders, confusing activity with achievement. They do more than nothing, but... no.
Givewell is effectively attempting to work out which charities most increase human welfare for dollar. So, a charity 'fails' if it becomes clearly less effective than the next best.