thomblake comments on The Criminal Stupidity of Intelligent People - Less Wrong Discussion
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Well, I wouldn't expect a weatherman to be an expert on murder, but he is an expert on weather, and due to the interdisciplinary nature of murder-weather-forecasting, I would not expect there to be many people in a better position to predict which days are good for murder.
If the woman is an expert on murder, or if she has conflicting reports from murder experts (e.g. "Only murder on dark and stormy nights") she might have reason to doubt the weatherman's claim about sunny days.
You don't get it. Murder is NOT an abstract variable in the previous comment. It's a constant.
I thought I understood what I was saying, but I don't understand what you're saying. What?