I think, more to the point is the question of what functions the evolutionary processes were computing. Those instincts did not evolve to provide insight into truth, they evolved to maximize reproductive fitness. Certainly these aren't mutually exclusive goals, but to a certain extent, that difference in function is why we have cognitive biases in the first place.

Obviously that's an over simplification, but my point is that if we know something has gone wrong, and that there's conflict between an intelligent person's conclusions and the intuitions we've evolved, the high probability that the flaw' is in the intelligent person's argument depends on whether that instinct in some way produced more babies than it's competitors.

This may or may not significantly decrease the probability distribution on expected errors assigned earlier, but I think it's worth considering.