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Giles comments on [Retracted] Simpson's paradox strikes again: there is no great stagnation? - Less Wrong Discussion

30 Post author: CarlShulman 30 July 2012 05:55PM

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Comment author: Giles 30 July 2012 09:07:30PM 1 point [-]

any particular individual would be likely to make more

Could this result be explained simply by people joining the workforce at a low wage, working their way up the ladder over the course of their career, and then retiring with a higher wage? If that's all that's happening here then it wouldn't seem to contradict the stagnation narrative at all.

But how would we find out whether that hypothesis is correct? And in fact what are the alternative hypotheses?

Comment author: CarlShulman 30 July 2012 09:12:36PM 2 points [-]

Even better would be to use more of those omitted variables: age, education, time in the workforce. One could use the General Social Survey for a rough take, using this link. I'd be curious to see the analysis if you'd like to do it.