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OrphanWilde comments on Thoughts on a possible solution to Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: Dolores1984 01 August 2012 12:32PM

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Comment author: OrphanWilde 01 August 2012 02:00:15PM 4 points [-]

If your metaconfidence serves only to push your confidence interval further in the direction it was already at, it seems likely you're double-counting somewhere; you're weighing the same evidence (or lack thereof) to generate your metaconfidence as your confidence.