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jsteinhardt comments on Thoughts on a possible solution to Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong Discussion
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Nice post. I think directionality of meta confidence is a consequence if markov's inequality.
Can you elaborate?
Markov's inequality says that, if 0 <= X <= 1, then
P[X >= a] <= E[X] / a
and that
P[X <= a] <= E[1-X] / (1-a)
These are directional statements, hence directionality of metaconfidence.