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passive_fist comments on Making My Peace with Belief - Less Wrong Discussion

14 Post author: OrphanWilde 03 December 2015 08:36PM

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Comment author: passive_fist 03 December 2015 08:58:07PM *  2 points [-]

Aside from the confirmation bias, if you believe a room to be 'haunted', it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, leading to 'extra-cautious' behavior that actually may actually increase the chance that another bad thing will happen.

Anyway, what you're describing are just hypotheses. One explanation could be that the room is haunted by a supernatural presence. Another could simply be random statistical chance. Science isn't inherently against belief and anyone who thinks this is mistaken. Science is just a way of sifting through beliefs. You can test the hypothesis that the room is haunted by, say, gathering people who have no prior information about the room, getting them to go into the room, and recording how often bad things happen, compared to a control room. You'd most likely find no statistically significant difference. But the thing is, we often don't have the time or resources to carry out detailed experiments confirming or rejecting all our beliefs. So we believe, as a short-cut to actual knowledge. If this is what you are trying to say here, I fully agree.