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Viliam_Bur comments on Group rationality diary, 8/6/12 - Less Wrong Discussion

6 Post author: cata 08 August 2012 05:58AM

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Comment author: Viliam_Bur 13 August 2012 11:41:02AM 2 points [-]

Of course if it's successful, I will be glad to share. I would love to share the details now, but there are a few good reasons not to do so:

1) Writing only about successful projects improves the signal:noise ratio. However enthusiastic I feel about my game, if it fails, it is an evidence that it was not worth publishing.

2) Writing about it would be a reward to me, and it's probably bad idea to take one's reward before one does the work.

Comment author: gwern 13 August 2012 04:20:04PM 10 points [-]

1) Writing only about successful projects improves the signal:noise ratio. However enthusiastic I feel about my game, if it fails, it is an evidence that it was not worth publishing.

What a lovely justification of publication bias.

Comment author: palladias 13 August 2012 09:28:36PM 6 points [-]

1) Writing only about successful projects improves the signal:noise ratio. However enthusiastic I feel about my game, if it fails, it is an evidence that it was not worth publishing.

Noticing how something failed is useful. You had some reason to think it would work and it didn't. If it was just a lark, sure, move on, but if you expected it to work, pause, notice you are confused and try to work out what happened. Maybe it's a calibration exercise, or maybe there's a patch.

Also, not everyone returns to give us updates. If you say it didn't work, we can all update more cleanly than if you go dark and we have to weight the update by how likely not letting us know what happened is caused by a negative result or just other commitments.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 14 August 2012 10:56:14AM *  5 points [-]

You are right; and so is gwern.

Therefore I promise to write about positive or negative results of this experiment in Group Rationality Diary in December 2012 (or sooner, in case of failure).