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Document comments on The Fallacy of Large Numbers - Less Wrong Discussion

20 Post author: dspeyer 12 August 2012 06:39PM

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Comment author: Document 13 August 2012 01:22:26AM 19 points [-]

Take a moment to think of a number. Take a moment to answer. Take note of what you're thinking now.

My number, answer and thoughts were "How much do I gain for supplying a car, and how much do I lose for failing to supply an offered car?".

Comment author: novalis 13 August 2012 06:37:16AM 13 points [-]

Yeah, if you're an airline, the number might be 105.

Comment author: [deleted] 13 August 2012 11:52:34PM 1 point [-]

?

Comment author: novalis 14 August 2012 12:19:34AM 2 points [-]

Airlines regularly oversell flights -- they might sell 105 tickets on a flight with 100 seats. They do that because people frequently don't show up for a flight.

Come to think of it, I'm not actually sure who does this. I've probably flown 100 times, and I can only think of one occasion where I've not taken a flight that I bought a ticket for. I guess I'm not the typical airline customer.

Comment author: Khoth 15 August 2012 12:13:57AM *  3 points [-]

I think it's business customers who book flights they might not need, because it's easier to cancel/not show up than to book in a hurry.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 15 August 2012 03:48:25PM 3 points [-]

A colleague of mine has on more than one occasion booked several different flights for the same journey, to give himself the flexibility to change his arrangements later. It worked out much cheaper than buying a more expensive ticket that allowed for changes.

Comment author: Kindly 15 August 2012 01:49:08PM 3 points [-]

For that matter, if you're 90% sure you're going to take the flight (which seems reasonable, considering there's not too many overbooked tickets), you still save money (in expectation) buying the ticket early, since tickets bought far in advance are cheaper.

So maybe it's the better calibrated customers who book flights they might not need.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 13 August 2012 08:07:24AM *  2 points [-]

Also, how much of a loss can I afford to take before going bankrupt. The lower my cash reserves are, the more I want to play safe.

Comment author: Document 13 August 2012 09:20:30AM 2 points [-]

I was hoping to abstract that away by not specifying "how much money".

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 14 August 2012 08:18:05AM 1 point [-]

I figured that you might have intended to include it, but thought that somebody might still benefit from it being pointed out explicitly.