Is the data for a uselessly narrow - or uselessly broad - category of 'actuaries'? etc.
The actuarial field has a bright line around it's borders: if you haven't passed your country's standardized exams, you're not an actuary.
So you do agree some fields are in decline!
Well yeah, I'd expect half the fields to be doing worse than median. My point was that it was unlikely that all fields I look at are in decline.
I specifically mentioned Korea because of this potential for you to just say 'ah, but if you look somewhere else....' See comment #1 about definitions and sizes of categories.
So.... you got me? I didn't single out Korean ESL teachers in my OP, so I don't think can accuse me of broadening the definition.
Your regulation points are interesting, though, but point to other possibilities: maybe the complained about decline is precisely the growth or increases - how well do you understand what the existing backpackers value or are complaining about?
So if Korea makes it harder to enter the job market, that's bad for workers; and if Australia makes it easier to enter the job market, that's also bad for workers?
Well yeah, I'd expect half the fields to be doing worse than median. My point was that it was unlikely that all fields I look at are in decline.
I think you're tying yourself in circles. You can't argue 'every field I look at is not in decline' and then immediately turn around and admit that some fields are in decline. More generally, your median point applies to the self-assessments too: even if self-assessment is completely random and actual field performance is random too, you'd still expect a quarter to be - by sheer luck - above the median in actual...
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for the week of August 20th. It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
Or anything else interesting which you want to share, so that other people can think about it, and perhaps be inspired to take action themselves. Try to include enough details so that everyone can use each other's experiences to learn about what tends to work out, and what doesn't tend to work out.
Thanks to everyone who contributes!
Last week's diary; archive of prior diaries.