I know people have talked about this in the past, but now seems like an important time for some practical brainstorming here. Hypothetical: the recent $15mm Series A funding of Vicarious by Good Ventures and Founders Fund sets off a wave of $450mm in funded AGI projects of approximately the same scope, over the next ten years. Let's estimate a third of that goes to paying for man-years of actual, low-level, basic AGI capabilities research. That's about 1500 man-years. Anything which can show something resembling progress can easily secure another few hundred man-years to continue making progress.
Now, if this scenario comes to pass, it seems like one of the worst-case scenarios -- if AGI is possible today, that's a lot of highly incentivized, funded research to make it happen, without strong safety incentives. It seems to depend on VCs realizing the high potential impact of an AGI project, and of the companies having access to good researchers.
The Hacker News thread suggests that some people (VCs included) probably already realize the high potential impact, without much consideration for safety:
...I think this exactly the sort of innovation timeline real venture capitalists should be considering - funding real R&D that could have a revolutionary impact even if the odds are against it.
The company to get all of this right will be the first two trillion dollar company.
Is there any way to reverse this trend in public perception? Is there any way to reduce the number of capable researchers? Are there any other angles of attack for this problem?
I'll admit to being very scared.
Even Faster Solution:
Survey a bunch of open source people asking them if they'd switch to working on friendly AGI in the event that an AGI project started without enough safety, or get their signatures. Surely the thousands of programmers now working on projects like Firefox and Open Office, who clearly have an altruistic bent as they are working for free, will see that it is more important to prevent unfriendly AGI than to make sure the next version of these smaller projects are released on time.
If we can honestly say to these companies "If you try to start an AGI project without thorough safety precautions, 100,000 programmers have said they'll rise up against you and make a FREE AGI to compete with yours that's safer." What they will hear is "We'll be put out of business!" Assuming they believe the survey results are accurate, and that the plan for the project is feasible, they will be will forced to take safety precautions in order to protect their investments.
Just that ONE piece of information, if communicated right, could transform a risky AGI arms race into a much safer one.
Here's a multiplier effect: If you're asking a bunch of programmers anyway, you may as well ask them if they'd be willing to make a monetary contribution toward the friendly AGI project for x, y, or z strategies/prerequisites. Programmers tend to make a lot of money.
How this could postpone an arms race:
If the bar is set high enough (which can be done by asking the programmers all the conditions the AGI would have to meet, without which they'd deem it "risky" and get involved), you may postpone the arms race quite some time while companies regroup and try to figure out a strategy to compete with these guys. This assumes, also, that it becomes common knowledge among the people who would start a risky AGI project that this pact among open source programmers exists.
Other pieces that would be required to make this idea work:
The open source programmers would have to be given a message about the company who has started an AGI project that gets them to understand the gravity of the problem. They're probably more likely to grok it just because they're programmers and they're the right sort to have already thought about this sort of thing, but we'd want to make sure the message is really clear. This could be a little tricky due to laws about libel.
Companies may not believe the open source programmers are serious about switching. This is easily resolved by creating a wall where they can put remarks about why they think competing with unsafe AGI is an important project. Surely they will put convincing things like "I love using Linux, but if a risky AGI destroys enough, that won't matter anymore."
Have a way to contact the companies who are starting risky AGI projects in order to send them the message that they're provoking a loss of their investment. Asking the volunteer programmers to email them a threat to compete with them, (the way that a lot of activist organizations ask their members to tell companies they won't put up with them destroying the environment), would be one way. This requires previously having collected the email addresses of the programmers so that they can be asked to email the company. It also requires getting the email addresses of important people at the company, but that's not hard if you know how to look up who owns a website.
Ensure the open source programmers in question are knowledgeable enough about the dangers of AGI to want high standards for safety. They may need to be educated about this in order to make informed decisions. Providing compelling examples and a clearly written list of safety standards are both important or not everyone will be on the same page, and there won't be something solid causing them to consciously confront their biases and doubts.
Have a way to ask all (or a significant number of) the people interested in doing open source programming whether they'd switch. This does two things: 1. You get your survey results / signatures. 2. You get them thinking about it as a cause. Getting them thinking about it and discussing it, if they aren't already, would catalyze more of them to decide to work on it, assuming they use rational thought processes. After all, what's more important? Failing to upgrade Firefox, or having to live with unfriendly AGI? Just asking enough people the question would start a snowball effect that would attract people to the cause.
Retain some contact method that allows you to inform them when a risky AGI project starts. Note: Sending out mass-mailings is really tricky because spam filters are set to "paranoid" - it might take a person experienced with this to get the email campaign to go through.
When it is time for them to switch to AGI, they'll need to be convinced that it ACTUALLY is, in fact, that time. There will be inertia to overcome, so you'd need to present compelling reasons to believe that they should change over immediately.
The idea for the open source AGI must sound feasible in order for it to be convincing to companies that are starting unsafe AGI projects.
Please critique. I'd be happy to get more involved in problem-solving.
Other Ideas: Three possible solutions: (Which also explains why I think open source might have a competitive advantage.)