drethelin comments on Stupid Questions Open Thread Round 4 - Less Wrong Discussion
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This question may come off as a bit off topic : people often say cryonics is a scam. Which is the evidence for that, and to the contrary? How should I gather it?
The thing is, cryonics is a priori awfully suspect. It appeal to one of our deepest motive (not dying), is very expensive, has unusual payment plans, and is just plain weird. So the prior of it being a scam designed to rip us off is quite high. On the other hand, reading about it here, I acquired a very strong intuition that it is not a scam, or at least that Alcor and CI are serious. The problem is, I don't have solid evidence I can tell others about.
Now, I doubt the scam argument is the main reason why people don't buy it. But I'd like to get that argument out of the way.
I think there is a very good chance some cryonics organizations are in fact scams.
Good. Is this just an intuition, or can you communicate more precise reasons? A list of red flags could be useful (whether they are present or not).
Alcor: Improperly trained personnel, unkempt and ill-equipped facilities.
Source
Cryonics Institute: Patient experimentation. No need to say anything else.
Source
Trans Time:
I should add, Ray Mills was actually removed from suspension and placed in a chest full of dry ice.
You can also consider the now-defunct Cryonics Society of California, though I don't think any of the above organizations would go as far as talking about a non-existent facility in the present tense while the patients lay on the floor, rotting.
Okay, looks like I have to lower my probability that « Alcor and CI are serious ». Now this is from over a year ago. Maybe there's some sign things have changed since? I guess not, unless they acquired some Lukeprog like leadership.
I'll read the whole thing to try and determine to what extent this is incompetence, and to what extent this is scammy (for instance, dust and dirt look like incompetence, but the hardened doors with plywood roof looks a bit more suspect).
It might be difficult to tell incompetence apart from malice, moreover, it is possible to transition from one to the other:
Let's say you start a cryonics organization with all good intentions, then you start running into problems: costs are higher than expected, mishaps occur during the cryopreservation process, evidence that your process is flawed starts to accumulate and you have no idea on how to fix it, etc. So what do you do?
Apologize for the bad service you sold, thaw and bury the frozen corpses (since you know they are already damaged beyond repair), disband the organization and find a new job, risking to face legal action? That's what a perfectly honest person would do.
But if you are not perfectly honest, you might find yourself hiding or downplaying technical issues, cutting the costs at the expense of service quality, using deceitful marketing strategies, and so on.
Maybe you could rationalize that the continued existence of your organization is so important that it should be preserved even at the cost of deceiving some people, maybe you could even deceive yourself into ignoring your essentially fraudolent behavior and maintain a positive self-image (if you were attracted to cryonics in the first place, chances are high that you are prone to wishful thinking). But, whatever your intentions are, at this point your business has become a de facto scam.
That's a mighty low bar to clear. Thank goodness CI and Alcor have standards.
Well, I have this theory that CI stores its neuropatients in the dewar with the dead cats in it.
In seriousness, it just floors me the degree to which every player worth speaking of in the field of cryonics seems to be managed (and micromanaged, at that) by Bad Decision Dinosaur. The concept of suspended animation is not inherently crackpot material; the idea that clinical death and information-theoretic death are different things (with implications for comparative medical treatment in different eras) is actually kind of profound -- yet the history of cryonics is a sordid tale full of expensive boondoggles, fraud, ethical nightmares and positively macabre events. And that's the stuff cryonicists will admit to! Look at that Alcor case: the only way I can avoid shuddering is by imagining it set to Yakety Sax.
In fairness, so is the history of medicine up until very recently.
Sure, if you leave out the much longer history and ignore that it was substantially leavened with good faith efforts to restore health, arrest decline and reduce suffering, a substantial number of which also succeed.
(As for "until very recently" -- flagrant abuse still happens in medicine, that's not a thing that recently stopped happening. What I'm saying is that this simply means medicine isn't special as an endeavor... whereas cryonics seems to have little to show for it other than that some bodies are, in fact, vitrified or just garden-variety frozen, depending, many of them even standing a good chance of being reasonably intact after going through the handling process. There's such a vast asymmetry between the two fields; if they were really that comparable, most doctors would be this guy.
To the best of my knowledge, doctors don't experiment on patients without their consent, drill burr holes without circulation, or generally just do anything they want without fear of prosecution (Since cryonics is considered a form of interment, whether the person was completely turned into a glass sculpture or straight-frozen like so many people were does not affect the organizations). Doctors may forget rectal plugs or leave patients if funds are unavailable, though.
What do you define as 'very recently'?
Things people are willing to pay lots of money for are a strong signal to unscrupulous people. Examples abound of people doing scams as investment advice, counterfeiting art, or selling knock-off designer jewelry. Cryonics is something where you pay a lot of money for a service many years down the line. Someone could easily take in cryonics payments for years without ever having to perform a cryopreservation, and only have it become known after they've disappeared with the profits. Alternately, the impossibility of checking results means that a cryonics provider can profit off of shoddy service and equipment, and you might never realize. On these lines, any organization that is unwilling to let you inspect their preservation equipment etc. is suspect in my eyes. Cryonics organizations are also susceptible to drift in motives of their owners. Maybe the creators 10 years ago were serious about cryonics, but if the current CEO or board of directors cares more about optimizing cheap equipment and profits, then that group might become a de facto scam.
If I understand correctly, I can extract those flags, in descending order of redness:
That also suggest signs of trustworthiness:
I'd like to have more such green and red flags, but this is starting to look actionable. Thank you.
One strong signal that I think some cryonics orgs implement is preferentially hiring people who have family members in storage.
Or pets.
In the longer run, the governance of a cryo organization should be designed to try and prevent drift. I like how Alcor requires board members to be signed up as well as to have relatives or significant others signed up, but this still doesn't work against someone who's actually unscrupulous.