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philh comments on Stupid Questions Open Thread Round 4 - Less Wrong Discussion
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In 1023/1024 worlds your observer doesn't update on QI, and neither do you. In 1/1024 worlds, you update on QI and so does the version of the person you interact with. ;)
The person watching me gives 1/1024 chance of my survival, regardless of whether QI is true or false. So if I survive, he does not update his belief in QI.
(That said, if I observed a 1/3^^^^3 probability, that might well increase my belief in MWI (I'm not sure if it should do, but it would be along the lines of "there's no way I would have observed that unless all possible outcomes were observed by some part of my total measure"). And I'm not sure how MWI could be true but QI false, so it would also increase my belief in QI.
So maybe 1/1024 would do the same, but certainly not to anything like the same extent as personally surviving those odds.)