I don't mean to minimize your concerns, though. Right now I expect to fail. I expect us all to get paperclipped (or turned off), though I'll be happy to update in favor of positive outcomes if (1) research shows the problem isn't as hard as I now think, (2) financial support for x-risk reduction increases, (3) etc.
I think you may have misunderstood my intent here. I'm not trying to make you more pessimistic about our overall prospects but arguing (i.e., trying to figure out) the absolute and relative importance of solving various strategic problems.
Another point was to suggest that perhaps SI ought to give higher priority to recruiting/training "hero strategists" as opposed to "hero mathematicians". For example your So You Want to Save the World says:
No, the world must be saved by mathematicians, computer scientists, and philosophers.
which fails to credit the importance of strategic contributions (even though later in the post there is a large section on strategic problems).
which fails to credit the importance of strategic contributions
Sorry if that was unclear; I mean to identify the strategists as "philosophers", like this. As you say, I went on to include a large section on strategy.
I certainly agree on the importance of strategy. Most of the research SI and FHI have done is strategic, after all — and most of the work in progress is strategic, too.
I do tend to talk a lot about "hero mathematicians," though. Maybe that's because "hero mathematician" is more concrete (to me) than "hero ...
Previously: round 1, round 2, round 3
From the original thread:
Ask away!