I experiment with these things. Based on a period of years, during which I occupied different personae, it's clear to me that I can get upvoted reliably if I clearly articulate and intelligently apply the LW-consensus analyses. I will get downvoted severely if I--stupidly or intelligently--articulate an original position that contradicts the LW consensus. As I say, I don't see how it can be otherwise, if LW is to function as a community with consensus views on eclectic matters.

I wonder what you mean by "in theory." If that means "according to the standard LW rhetoric," I agree.