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Open Thread, October 1-15, 2012

1 Post author: David_Gerard 01 October 2012 05:54AM

If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.

 

Comments (477)

Comment author: David_Gerard 01 October 2012 05:58:21AM *  2 points [-]

Dr Doug works through all the numbers for the UK National Lottery: Mistaken gambling, The secret thing, The Lottery Thing. (And, before: Making a hash of it, Making the future.)

Comment author: coffeespoons 02 October 2012 01:10:59PM 0 points [-]

Doug's blog is ace. I very much recommend it!

Comment author: Risto_Saarelma 01 October 2012 06:37:47AM 7 points [-]
Comment author: [deleted] 01 October 2012 08:44:42PM 5 points [-]

The drama caused in other sciences due to not sorting authors alphabetically is truly depressing.

Comment author: Unnamed 01 October 2012 11:56:19PM 7 points [-]

Economics also has the tradition of ordering authors alphabetically. And economists with earlier-letter surnames end up having more successful careers, quite possibly as a result of that tradition.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 October 2012 12:44:59AM 1 point [-]

Alpha order, like “first come, first served” (Cornell and Roll 1981), would be an Evolutionary Stable Strategy that reduces conflict, though at the cost of the biases already mentioned. The problem is to keep the conflict reduction and other positive aspects of alpha order while overcoming the biases that accompany it.

If the tradeoff is between either some acknowledged bias or a great deal of drama, I choose the former.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 02 October 2012 04:26:02PM 0 points [-]

There are possibilities for less biased orderings which are also less drama-prone. For example, choose a day 1, then use alphabetical order, but advance the first letter of the alphabet for each a day after day 1. Today is the alphabet for author ordering starts with A, tomorrow with B, and so on. If that still introduces a bias, then perhaps the alphabet should start with the same letter on consecutive days, but alternate between going forwards and backwards.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 October 2012 04:31:36PM 1 point [-]

In the article Hanson proposes a simpler method.

Comment author: fubarobfusco 02 October 2012 07:40:29AM 2 points [-]

And yet the effect isn't strong enough for economists named Zweibel to change their names to Aardman?

Comment author: satt 02 October 2012 11:17:25AM 0 points [-]

The best part?

"If scientists want to convey this information by the way their names are ordered, the method is similar to sending smoke signals, in code, on a dark, windy night," Rennie says. An unpublished 1995 survey conducted by the American Association for the Advancement of Science -- the publisher of Science and Science Careers -- found that even editors of clinical journals couldn't agree on the meaning of author order. In a culture that requires precise communication, the traditional means of communicating author's contributions is "scarcely scientific," Rennie says.

Comment author: CronoDAS 01 October 2012 08:02:16AM *  1 point [-]

Noah Smith wrote up a humorous piece about the different kinds of economics blog trolls. Where does Robin Hanson fit in?

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 01 October 2012 03:33:44PM *  1 point [-]

I think he's more of a legendary monster than a species of any ordinary troll, though he probably fits best as one of the scientists.

Comment author: CronoDAS 03 October 2012 01:58:53AM *  1 point [-]

Actually, these seem to be only macroeconomics blog trolls. Robin Hanson doesn't talk about present-day macroeconomic issues very much, so he's probably not any of them.

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 03 October 2012 02:05:44AM 0 points [-]

I vaguely remember him criticizing macro for failing to actually grapple with the evidence, but I could easily be wrong.

Comment author: Gabriel 02 October 2012 07:20:05PM 4 points [-]

Funny pictures. Other than that, it looks like a viable case study for Yvain's meditation on superweapons and bingo.

Comment author: Morendil 01 October 2012 08:10:15AM *  25 points [-]

In the right-hand navigation bar of the site, there is a "Tags" box which lists the most popular post tags. This box has a feature whereby the tags are rendered in a font size proportional to their frequency of occurrence.

Over time, the attribution of the "sequence_reruns" tag to sequence rerun posts has made this feature inoperative: because it's the single most used tag, and no other tag even comes close in frequency, every tag is now rendered at precisely the same font size except for "sequence_reruns".

Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 01 October 2012 10:22:28AM 4 points [-]

You deserve at least 24 upvotes for pointing this out.

Comment author: Morendil 01 October 2012 01:01:59PM *  0 points [-]

I had no idea it had already been reported, but I see it's been corrected now (ETA: nope! I was confusing Main and Discussion). Updating in favor of being a squeaky wheel.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 01 October 2012 01:41:26PM 8 points [-]

I had no idea it had already been reported, but I see it's been corrected now.

No, it hasn't. There are two different tag clouds, one for Main and one for Discussion. It's the Discussion one that faces the problem.

Comment author: Morendil 01 October 2012 06:12:06PM 2 points [-]

Oops.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 01 October 2012 08:14:09PM 8 points [-]

You should edit your original comment to indicate this, so that other people don't think it has been corrected.

Comment author: Slackson 01 October 2012 11:51:28AM 2 points [-]

Strictly speaking it's not precisely the same font size. A few, such as "rationality" and "meta" appear to be one size bigger.

Comment author: [deleted] 01 October 2012 02:18:08PM 1 point [-]

Some tags such as “meetup”, “psychology” or “rationality” do appear to have a slightly larger font size, in my browser at least.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 01 October 2012 08:56:45AM 5 points [-]

Course Builder is some software Google used for making an online course, and now it is available, also with free webhosting if you don't have too many students.

Has anyone tried this? Is anyone interested in this? Are there other easy ways to make and publish online lessons without paying money? I did not have time to explore this product deeply yet, but it was easy to download and install.

Could this be useful to provide some CFAR lessons online? Convert the Sequences into Videosequences? ;-)

Comment author: [deleted] 01 October 2012 08:21:45PM *  2 points [-]

Has anyone tried this?Is anyone interested in this?

Yes, I've been looking into it in relation to this project. If you'd like to join our little informal research group feel free to contact me via PM and share your email address. :)

Are there other easy ways to make and publish online lessons without paying money?

A few but they seem kind of sketchyware and I haven't tried them.

Comment author: Risto_Saarelma 01 October 2012 11:25:35AM 6 points [-]

Via John Baez: Mathematics for theoretical physics, a 700-odd page self-contained reference to all the maths you supposedly need to have some idea what contemporary theoretical physicists are talking about.

Comment author: [deleted] 01 October 2012 02:23:56PM 0 points [-]

Thanks. I'll take a glance at it when I have some spare time.

Comment author: [deleted] 01 October 2012 08:43:26PM 4 points [-]

I saw this pop on arXiv, but I doubt it will be very useful to anyone who doesn't know most of the stuff in it beforehand. The exposition is pretty terse, and there are well over 1000 stated theorems.

Comment author: Blackened 01 October 2012 12:13:02PM *  1 point [-]

Any good books on mathematics for software engineers? I've been looking at the best universities in UK, they all have much more mathematics in their degree than what I'm taught.

Also, any good books for probability theory and all the things needed for AI development? I'm doing this course: https://www.edx.org/courses/BerkeleyX/CS188.1x/2012_Fall/about

Edit: These are the programs I've been talking about.

Imperial college: http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/ugprospectus/facultiesanddepartments/computing/computingcourses http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/computing/teaching/ug/mengcompse

Cambridge: http://www.study.cam.ac.uk/undergraduate/courses/compsci/

Oxford: http://www.ox.ac.uk/admissions/undergraduate_courses/courses/computer_science/computer_science_.html

I assume they teach mathematics, because it's useful for software engineers.

Comment author: Risto_Saarelma 01 October 2012 12:52:30PM *  4 points [-]

Any good books on mathematics for software engineers?

What kind of problems in particular would you like to be able to solve better? I don't really find myself needing much mathematics in everyday programming.

That said, Knuth's Concrete Mathematics comes to mind as a book on the sort of mathematics used in computer science, and Alexander Stepanov's Elements of Programming takes an interesting mathematics-like first-principles approach to constructing programs in a C++-like language (Stepanov came up with the STL for C++).

There are also people claiming that category theory can be used as a foundation for software engineering, but I'm not able to point to many convincing examples of a real-world software engineering problem solved neatly using category theory. I could sort of follow some of the bananas and barbed wire paper, which constructs CT-ish algebraic representations for basic looping constructs in programs.

Actual category theory stuff just puts my brain to sleep by the time it jumps to the third level of abstracting categories into categories with me still without a motivation for connecting the thing to something I can do something with, but Pierce's Basic Category Theory for Computer Scientists is at least thin and has a title which makes you think you should read it. There's also Conceptual Mathematics that explains categories at a college freshman reading level with several examples, which I should probably get back to reading at some point. I could actually follow it, but still came out with no idea what I would actually want to use categories for.

For AI and probability, Bishop's Pattern recognition and machine learning comes up a lot.

I haven't actually read any of these to the end, though I'm pretty sure I've read the first chapter from each.

ETA: I actually did read the Cinderella Book cover to cover as an undergraduate. It's an introduction to the theory of formal languages and automata, working its way up to Turing machines and the theory of computation. Basically this is the book you read to understand what people mean when they say "Turing-complete". The take-away message for practical software engineering is that there's a hard line between easily tractable, Turing-incomplete languages and fundamentally undecidable Turing-complete ones, and you shouldn't cross it without a good reason.

Also, Pierce's Types and Programming Languages is about the mathematical modeling of the type systems for programming languages, coming from the direction of the Standard ML family of languages. The pressure between tractability and expressiveness of a type system can be an actual concern for real-world software.

Comment author: Pfft 01 October 2012 05:06:30PM 0 points [-]

I assume they teach mathematics, because it's useful for software engineers.

Maybe, but I think a bigger reason is that it is useful for computer scientists, and these courses aim to prepare you for research as well as for work in industry.

Comment author: Risto_Saarelma 01 October 2012 07:01:42PM 7 points [-]

I assume they teach mathematics, because it's useful for software engineers.

Be aware that computer science and software engineering are different disciplines, and don't assume that people who design university curricula are experts on teaching software engineering. You can find top-notch computer scientists at universities, but top-notch software engineers tend to end up in the industry instead of academia.

Comment author: Larks 02 October 2012 02:54:45PM 1 point [-]

Oxford

Oxford's course is unusually pure. My freinds reading it don't actually use, you know, computers. They just write their algorithms down on paper.

Comment author: wedrifid 02 October 2012 03:19:25PM -2 points [-]

Oxford's course is unusually pure. My freinds reading it don't actually use, you know, computers. They just write their algorithms down on paper.

"Pure" one word you could use for that teaching strategy. Just what it is a 'pure' representation of is up for debate. "Pure backwards self-congratulatory tripe" would be the cynical description.

Comment author: Larks 03 October 2012 09:36:34AM *  1 point [-]

It's not the teaching strategy, it's the subject matter. See for instance pure maths.

Comment author: Risto_Saarelma 03 October 2012 05:02:39PM 1 point [-]

I think they're trying to train a Scott Aaronson, not a John Carmack. A Scott Aaronson really does work by not actually using a computer much for anything other than typesetting LaTeX.

Comment author: wedrifid 03 October 2012 06:18:50PM *  1 point [-]

using a computer for [...] typesetting LaTeX.

And that sounds like a brilliant idea. Most of the problems I have with having being forced to write algorithms on paper at times disappear right there. It's even worse than forcing people to write sentences on paper, given the need for correctness in the details.

Comment author: Larks 03 October 2012 06:40:33PM 1 point [-]

Oh, they don't have to write on paper. I just don't know any maths students who do. Handwriting maths is easier than typesetting it.

Comment author: DaFranker 03 October 2012 07:31:51PM 0 points [-]

Wolfram-style automatic formatting buttons ftw.

Comment author: Risto_Saarelma 04 October 2012 08:12:05AM 0 points [-]

Maybe try with a bit less sarcasm? I'm having genuine trouble parsing what you are objecting to, exactly.

Comment author: wedrifid 04 October 2012 09:36:29AM 0 points [-]

Maybe try with a bit less sarcasm?

There isn't any sarcasm in the grandparent.

Comment author: Gabriel 02 October 2012 06:34:20PM 0 points [-]

Are you saying that you have a friend who attends this program at Oxford and they don't do any actual programming? I suspect I'm misunderstanding because that sounds really unlikely.

Comment author: Larks 03 October 2012 09:35:36AM 1 point [-]

I think they did at one point - but yes, when I asked them about it, they basically hadn't entered code into a terminal for an entire semester.

Comment author: thomblake 02 October 2012 03:17:02PM 0 points [-]

It looks like you're talking about software engineering, but looking at computer science courses.

I assume they teach mathematics, because it's useful for software engineers.

No, they teach mathematics because it is necessary for computer science. They probably have little care for what is useful to software engineers.

Comment author: Blackened 02 October 2012 06:11:26PM 0 points [-]

That's because I wanted to see what their programmers study and computer science was the closest I found. I assume that their programmers would study that? And that it's better than study software engineering in a significantly worse university?

Comment author: thomblake 02 October 2012 06:37:10PM 0 points [-]

It really depends on what field you're going into and what specifically the employers you'll be courting will be looking for. For example, having a degree in philosophy was a major boost at my current job, because there are (oddly) so many CS majors out there with no critical thinking skills.

I was going to give various detailed advice here, but I realized I have no idea what the tech jobs are like in the UK. I assume they involve a lot of paperwork.

Comment author: palladias 01 October 2012 03:44:21PM 5 points [-]
Comment author: David_Gerard 01 October 2012 07:58:04PM -1 points [-]

I loved those things when I was a kid.

Comment author: shminux 01 October 2012 05:52:43PM *  9 points [-]

Real numbers are not "real". (Inspired by Imaginary numbers are not real, an elementary introduction to Clifford Algebra I came across a long time ago).

I find it a bit funny that people tend to think of real numbers as "real" numbers, as opposed to, say, imaginary numbers, which are not only not real, but also not "real" in a way a Realist would use the word. The paper above even takes pride in not using i in calculations. There is also an occasional discussion in philosophy papers and online of the wave function in QM not being "real" because it uses imaginary numbers.

I find it funny because real numbers are no more "real" than any other numbers. Even the set of all integers is not very "real", as basically everything in the Universe is finite, due to the cut-offs at various scales, such as the Planck scale and the age of the Universe, and whenever you try to disregard these cut-offs, things tend to blow up in your face.

One can potentially consider finite integers as the most "real", given that they correspond to discrete objects we can see, count and calculate. The rest are simply useful mathematical abstractions.

One would think that, given that many useful numbers like e and pi are no more "real" than i or infinity, people would get a clue and stop arguing, but no.

<end rant>

Comment author: [deleted] 01 October 2012 06:10:56PM 3 points [-]

I've never thought of real numbers as any more real (in the non-mathematical sense of the word) than other numbers, and I've been peeved by popularizations which use “real” and “imaginary” without making it clear that they're using them with a specific technical meaning (e.g. stuff like “special relativity has shown that if space is real time must be imaginary, and vice versa” -- yeah, they do have squares with opposite signs (though modern notation uses real 4-vectors and a non-positive-definite metric), but that's not how a reader would be most likely to interpret that sentence).

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 01 October 2012 08:33:55PM 3 points [-]

Agreed. I have no beef with the term 'complex' for the complex numbers. It's the 'real' for the others, and the 'imaginary' for the new stuff, that I mind.

I wonder if a very short treatment of abstract algebra should be given in high school, right before you get to complex numbers. Might reduce the number chauvinism and help with the illusion of number realism.

Comment author: shminux 01 October 2012 08:58:30PM 1 point [-]

number chauvinism

Never heard this term before :)

I wonder if a very short treatment of abstract algebra should be given in high school

Maybe in an AP-level course? The high-school math is pretty instrumental, focused on solving problems and passing tests. Actually, I think this is probably best covered in a relevant college-level philosophy course.

Comment author: DanielLC 02 October 2012 06:13:13AM 1 point [-]

One can potentially consider finite integers as the most "real", given that they correspond to discrete objects we can see, count and calculate.

Lots of numbers correspond to things. It seems arbitrary to say that integers are real numbers, because they correspond to discrete objects we see, but rotations aren't numbers, even though they correspond to transformations we can make on an object.

Comment author: pragmatist 02 October 2012 02:34:02PM *  1 point [-]

I more or less agree with you that the terms are inappropriate and often actively misleading. In relation to this, I've often wondered about the usual justification for the postulate that observables in quantum mechanics must be represented by Hermitian operators. The justification is that the expectation values of our observables must be real numbers. Doesn't this sort of justification stem from an intuition that real numbers are somehow more real than imaginary numbers? The attitude seems to be: Imaginary numbers can certainly play a theoretical role in physics, but when it comes to describing our immediate empirical situation, quantification must be in terms of real numbers -- it makes no sense for a measurement outcome to be described by a complex number.

Maybe this doesn't really represent the crux of the justfication. The argument might be that quantum mechanics needs to approximate classical mechanics at the macroscopic level, and classical mechanics only involves real numbers. Since observables correspond to measurement procedures, and measurement procedures are macroscopic, observables must have real expectation values. This argument seems fine if you genuinely think of observables as representing measurement procedures, but if you think of observables as representing measurable properties (this seems to be a common perspective) then these properties need not be macroscopic, in which case it is unclear why they are constrained by a requirement to replicate classical mechanics.

I'm not questioning the claim that observables must be Hermitian, just suggesting that the usual justification isn't really that great. Maybe we should provide other arguments for this claim when teaching QM, in order to avoid entrenching the "real numbers are more real" fallacy. For instance, one could argue that the quantities we measure in QM experiments (energy, momentum, spin) are quantities that are conserved if certain symmetries hold (I think one might be able to construct an argument that any quantity that is properly considered measurable must satisfy this constraint). Symmetry transformations are represented by unitary operators, so measurable quantities must be represented by generators of such transformations, which must be Hermitian operators. I haven't thought through this argument carefully, but my intuition is that something of this sort is a better justification for the preference for Hermitian operators than the constraint that expectation values must be real.

Comment author: shminux 02 October 2012 03:09:16PM 0 points [-]

I'd work backwards. As I said, "finite integers as the most "real", given that they correspond to discrete objects we can see, count and calculate". If you accept that, instrumentally, we can only ever see a count of something, like the number of notches on a ruler, or marks to the left of the needle of some gauge, or the number of clock ticks before a certain event, then you can extrapolate backwards in your logic to include negative numbers, fractions, rationals, reals and complex numbers as convenient abstractions. But you have to leave a path forward in your models to eventually end up with the number of notches on a dial. If your observables are not Hermitian, you cut off this path from models to counts.

Comment author: pragmatist 02 October 2012 03:26:29PM 0 points [-]

If that's your view, though, I don't see why you think real expectation values are better than complex ones. If our measurements have the structure of integers, and our expectation values are real, then in our model of measurement we're going to have a map from the real line (or some segment thereof) representing possible expectation values to the integers representing notches on your dial. This map will presumably associate an element of some partition of the real line into finite regions with each integer. So this map must be part of your model of measurement in order to connect your integer measurements with the continuous space of expectation values allowed by the theory.

But if you're relying on some such map anyway, why can't the expectation values be complex? You could construct a map from a partition of the complex plane to the integers. More specifically, your claim that the ultimate measurement results must be integers doesn't rule out the possibility that each measurement result gives a pair of integers (instead of a dial moving along a single dimension, think of one that can move in two dimensions). For such measurements, it may even be more natural to think of a map from the complex plane to the measurement outcome, with one of the integers associated with the real part and the other with the imaginary part. As long as you allow for this possibility, I don't see the motivation for restricting observables to Hermitian operators. Surely it isn't a requirement of instrumentalism that the measurements we make must only be one-dimensional.

Comment author: shminux 02 October 2012 04:53:38PM 0 points [-]

Surely it isn't a requirement of instrumentalism that the measurements we make must only be one-dimensional.

Yeah, that would be a dangling requirement.

More specifically, your claim that the ultimate measurement results must be integers doesn't rule out the possibility that each measurement result gives a pair of integers (instead of a dial moving along a single dimension, think of one that can move in two dimensions).

That would be an interesting counterfactual universe, where you need at least two numbers to make sense of anything. I cannot quite imagine how this would work, but maybe this is a limit of my imagination. In the Universe we are currently stuck with, with the classical world described by classical mechanics based on real numbers, and the quantum world manifesting itself only through classical measurements, any useful model must ultimately lead to a set of readings off some dial, each of which should make sense separately.

Comment author: Manfred 03 October 2012 10:42:20AM 0 points [-]

One can potentially consider finite integers as the most "real", given that they correspond to discrete objects we can see, count and calculate. The rest are simply useful mathematical abstractions.

I fail to see the contrast.

Comment author: Maelin 04 October 2012 09:17:31AM 1 point [-]

I've taught a few people about the complex numbers, by stepping through expanding the naturals with the introduction of negatives to make integers, fractions to make rationals, irrationals to make reals, and finally (the 'novel' stage for my audience) imaginary numbers to make the complex numbers.

I emphasise the point that the new system always seems weird and confusing at first to the people who aren't used to it, and sometimes gets given a nasty name in contrast to the nice name of the old system (especially 'imaginary' vs 'real' and 'irrational' vs 'rational') but the new numbers are never more or less worthwhile than the old system - they're just different, and useful in new ways.

Comment author: [deleted] 01 October 2012 06:02:07PM *  1 point [-]

What's the name of the idea that morality is a scalar rather than a binary property (i.e., rather than asking whether A is moral, one should ask whether A is more moral or less moral than B)? I'm pretty sure I recently saw a discussion of that somewhere in a SEP article, linked to from a comment on LW, but I can't find it now -- and I've been searching for a while.

EDIT: Larks nailed it.

Comment author: DaFranker 01 October 2012 06:36:05PM 0 points [-]

I don't think this is what you're looking for, but just in case: The Repugnant Conclusion discusses morality systems quite a bit, so it might mention the article or name the idea you're looking for at some point, though I don't remember it if it does. I do remember that the article was entertaining, at least.

Comment author: RomeoStevens 02 October 2012 01:27:52AM 2 points [-]

utilitarianism...?

Comment author: [deleted] 02 October 2012 08:29:12AM *  1 point [-]

IIRC, that discussion was in the context of utilitarianism/consequentialism, where “[word A] consequentialism” was the moral system where the action that maximizes expected utility is moral and any other action is immoral, and “[word B] consequentialism” was the moral system where an action is more moral than another if it has higher expected utility, even if neither saturates the upper bound, or something like that.

EDIT: on looking at http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consequentialism/, “[word A]” is “maximizing”.

Comment author: pragmatist 02 October 2012 01:48:26PM *  2 points [-]

The right way to understand the difference between maximizing and satisficing consequentialism is not that the maximizing version treats morality as a binary and the satisficing version treats it as a scalar. Most proponents of maximizing consequentialism will also agree that the morality of an act is a matter of degree, so that giving a small fraction of your disposable income to charity is more moral than giving nothing at all, but less moral than giving to the point of declining marginal (aggregate) utility.

The distinction between maximizing and satisficing versions of utilitarianism is in their conception of moral obligation. Maximizers think that moral agents have an obligation to maximize aggregate utility, that one is morally culpable for knowingly choosing a non-maximizing action. Satisficers think that the obligation is only to cross a certain threshold of utility generated. There is no obligation to generate utility beyond that. Any utility generated beyond that threshold is supererogatory.

One way to think about it is to think of a graded scale of moral wrongness. For a maximizer, the moral wrongness of an act steadily decreases as the aggregate utility generated increases, but the wrongness only hits zero when utility is maximized. For the satisficer, the moral wrongness also decreases monotonically as utility generated increases, but it hits zero a lot faster, when the threshold is reached. As utility generated increases beyond that, the moral wrongness stays at zero. However, I suspect that most satisficers would say that the moral rightness of the act continues to increase even after the threshold is crossed, so on their conception the wrongness and rightness of an act (in so far as they can be quantified) don't have to sum to a constant value.

Comment author: Larks 02 October 2012 02:53:02PM 3 points [-]

Scalar is the right word. Scalar consequentialism is a thing. It's possible the comment you're thinking about was one of mine; I've introduced a fair few people to this (IMHO) superior version of consequentialism.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 October 2012 03:51:59PM *  0 points [-]

Thank you! That's the one I was thinking of. For some reason, I incorrectly remembered that it was on the SEP.

EDIT: Why, when I failed to find that on the SEP, I assumed that I misremembered the name and tried using different search keys, as opposed to suspecting that I misremembered the site and searching Google for the same key?

Comment author: [deleted] 01 October 2012 06:54:43PM 3 points [-]

What is the most effective chain of thoughts that a theist can make, that will make him realise that there is no God? Efficiency could be measured in the number of thought steps. I'm especially interested in references to articles that considers question.

Comment author: drethelin 01 October 2012 07:50:41PM 4 points [-]

I think a chain of feelings would be much more useful. As they say, you can't reason someone out of a belief they didn't reason themselves into.

Comment author: wedrifid 02 October 2012 05:43:45AM 13 points [-]

What is the most effective chain of thoughts that a theist can make, that will make him realise that there is no God?

"People not in my tribe are sexy and cool. I want to be like and/or mate with those people. I believe I have a sufficient chance of successfully joining and gaining status within the tribe with sexy and cool people in it. I will now change my signalling beliefs."

Comment author: palladias 02 October 2012 03:26:12PM 2 points [-]

This doesn't raise the sanity waterline at all. Unless the person is part of a very dangerous Jim Jones style of religion, what's the point?

Comment author: wedrifid 02 October 2012 03:47:55PM *  2 points [-]

This doesn't raise the sanity waterline at all.

Yes it does. I think you need to read it again a couple of times and maybe a few OvercomingBias posts.

Unless the person is part of a very dangerous Jim Jones style of religion, what's the point?

It makes no difference to the point whether the religion is dangerous, admirable or even the literally correct and the path to eternal bliss. Thoughts about tribal affiliations typically matter more than abstract reasoning when it comes to this kind of belief.

Comment author: palladias 02 October 2012 04:35:22PM 3 points [-]

Maybe I misunderstood. It sounded like you were suggesting that theists be baited with a honeypot (mate or group) that they'd like to be attractive to. The pressure to be liked would cause them to abandon their beliefs. I'm not saying this can't work, but it's a transformational pressure that works equally well in both directions. The person isn't better informed at the end of it, they're just trying to fit in with a group that happens to be more accurate.

(If atheism highly correlated with sexiness, maybe this would pull more people out of religion than in, but, in fact, religions are better at being organized into tribes with status anyway)

But, I think, given your response, that I've misread you. Can you correct me?

Comment author: wedrifid 02 October 2012 04:48:00PM 0 points [-]

It sounded like you were suggesting that theists be baited with a honeypot (mate or group) that they'd like to be attractive to.

It'd work, sure. Doesn't sound like a good use of my time.

Comment author: TimS 02 October 2012 04:47:28PM *  0 points [-]

Your statements have the implied premise that having true beliefs raises the sanity line even if the process of reaching those beliefs is not correlated with the correctness of the beliefs.

I prefer "raising the sanity line" to refer to increased usage of processes correlated with creating correct beliefs. Your hostile reaction to this understanding doesn't exactly advance the ball on figuring out how to actually achieve either goal.

Comment author: wedrifid 02 October 2012 04:53:25PM 2 points [-]

Your statements have the implied premise that having true beliefs raises the sanity line even if the process of reaching those beliefs is not correlated with the correctness of the beliefs.

I didn't use that premise. But I suppose it could be true anyway.

Comment author: TimS 02 October 2012 04:57:38PM 0 points [-]

"People not in my tribe are sexy and cool. I want to be like and/or mate with those people. I believe I have a sufficient chance of successfully joining and gaining status within the tribe with sexy and cool people in it. I will now change my signalling beliefs."

Given the context, I understood you to be saying that way to persuade theists was to demonstrate that atheists have higher social status. Regardless of the sociological truth of that assertion, we both know that "high-status" is not correlated with "correct beliefs."

Did I misunderstand you?

Comment author: wedrifid 02 October 2012 05:14:22PM *  1 point [-]

Given the context, I understood you to be saying that way to persuade theists was to demonstrate that atheists have higher social status.

I said something kind of similar to that so I'll accept it for the sake of the argument without implying any endorsement of the claim.

Regardless of the sociological truth of that assertion, we both know that "high-status" is not correlated with "correct beliefs."

I actually doubt this is true, that is there probably is such a correlation---the world is unfair like that. But putting that aside even if I assume the claims you make in the parent are true it still doesn't mean I had any particular premise (or conclusion) about the sanity line.

Did I misunderstand you?

I think you resolved the ambiguous 'this' in palladias's comment in a different direction.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 October 2012 01:21:10AM *  -1 points [-]

we both know that "high-status" is not correlated with "correct beliefs."

I actually doubt this is true, that is there probably is such a correlation

Yeah, but probably it's a very weak one.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 October 2012 01:17:45AM 2 points [-]

I'm pretty sure that at least some theists are sincere, rather than using belief-as-attire.

Comment author: wedrifid 03 October 2012 04:12:41AM 4 points [-]

I'm pretty sure that at least some theists are sincere

Most people are usually sincere and it remains the case that the most significant influence on most people's core ideological beliefs are social factors. That's how people work, for better or worse.

Comment author: drethelin 03 October 2012 05:47:35AM 3 points [-]

We can carry belief-as-attire slightly further and suggest that the totally sincere and unfaked embarrassment someone might feel about being caught pantsless in public is still governed by social factors. Your belief can functionally be attire without you recognizing it, much in the same way that someone in a suit just seems "well-dressed" even though they're not better dressed in an objective sense than say, someone in a traditional robe or animal skins.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 02 October 2012 08:15:50AM 3 points [-]

Effectiveness should be measured by results. So you would have to look at deconversion stories.

The problem of evil witnessed on a personal and intense level has done it for some. Historical scholarship on the origins of their religion has done it for others. For others again, materialist science leaving ever-shrinking gaps for God to be in.

Comment author: [deleted] 01 October 2012 08:36:15PM *  34 points [-]

Gwern Facts Thread

Because we already have an Eliezer Yudkowsky one and this website is awesome.

Found in Yvain's blog post:

Doesn't this mean that I must be wrong about its excellent safety profile? No. See for example Gwern's research on the subject. About half the people reading this paragraph are going to say "Wait, don't the FDA and the entire decision-making apparatus of the United States government have more data and credibility than one guy with a website?" The other half of the people know Gwern.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 October 2012 04:51:28AM *  7 points [-]

Gwern's reality marble, Unlimited Essay Works, is the original, of which Unlimited Blade Works is a mere copy.

Comment author: wallowinmaya 02 October 2012 10:59:13AM *  12 points [-]

Come on, Gwern deserves more than a favorable comparison to the FDA.

I know several people who have more credibility than the "FDA and the entire decision-making apparatus of the United States government", at least when it comes to drugs. Not because I know so many cool folks, but because drug regulation is a paramount example of government irrationality.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 October 2012 08:09:30AM 9 points [-]
Comment author: Epiphany 04 October 2012 07:18:36AM *  13 points [-]

I went to the library and it was empty. They said Gwern stopped by for a quick lookup.

Comment author: Epiphany 04 October 2012 07:43:56AM *  6 points [-]

They went to upload Gwern's brain. They said they couldn't do it, but they were glad that someone had made most of the internet redundant.

Comment author: [deleted] 01 October 2012 10:17:48PM *  9 points [-]

As a non-mathematician, I enjoyed an old blog post from Dick Lipton, Guessing the Truth, which lists a bunch mathematical conjectures incorrectly expected to be true, along with their resolutions. There's also a great comment by Terry Tao on kinds of evidence for mathematical conjectures. For example:

Attempts at disproof run into interesting obstacles. This one is a bit hard to formalise, but sometimes you can get a sense that attempts to disprove a conjecture are failing not due to one’s own lack of ability, or due to accidental contingencies, but rather due to “enemy activity”; some lurking hidden structure to the problem, corners of which emerge every time one tries to build a counterexample. The question is then whether this “enemy” is stupid enough to be outwitted by a sufficiently clever counterexample, or is powerful enough to block all such attempts. Identifying this enemy precisely is usually the key to resolving the conjecture (or transforming the conjecture into a stronger and better conjecture).

Comment author: [deleted] 01 October 2012 10:28:39PM 0 points [-]

Quantum proofs of classical theorems is a review article about how ideas and techniques from quantum information and computing have been used for proofs in classical computer science. I thought it was pretty fun. Are reviews of "proof techniques" common in math/CS theory? Are they actually useful for researchers or for students in those fields? I really like the idea; even well-developed techniques aren't the kinds of things textbooks emphasize. (At least the textbooks I read tend to focus more on the "content" of theorems and so on--maybe I just haven't gone far enough beyond foundational stuff.)

I guess I'm on a bit of a "how mathematics is done" kick lately (my comment below is also on that theme). If anyone has recommendations of the same flavor, I'd be interested.

Comment author: [deleted] 01 October 2012 10:52:14PM *  2 points [-]

Are reviews of "proof techniques" common in math/CS theory? Are they actually useful for researchers or for students in those fields?

In short: at least in mathematics, yes. The kind of papers you're talking about usually figure as communal lore or online preprints. Sometimes these things are written as a kind of propaganda for a relatively new or obscure field of mathematics; see, for instance, "Generatingfunctionology."

Comment author: Vaniver 01 October 2012 10:31:28PM 14 points [-]

So, Yvain posted a blog post recently. I was disappointed. I'm posting about it here because I'll have an easier time following a conversation about my thoughts here than in livejournal comments. I will note that he claims the post is, at most, 60% serious, but that seems at least ten thousand times too high.

A major supporting claim is that if modafinil were legal, it would become expected, and everything would be harder to match the increased ability of humans to be productive.

So the religious people flunk out, everyone else has to work much harder, and in the end no student gains. Arguably future patients might gain from having better trained doctors, but I think this wildly overestimates the usefulness of the medical education system.

A parable:

In the Old Country, the people once did not know of iodine. It was not illegal, but only a very specific kind of geek would eat dried seaweed carried long miles on the backs of beasts and men. One day, a stranger came to the village, preaching of this mysterious substance, claiming that its consumption would make all men cleverer.

The elders convened and discussed this 'boon,' if you could call it that. If one man is cleverer, he profits, but if all men are cleverer, then no man profits. No elder spoke this more loudly than the one whose wife feasted on seaweed, and whose children were free of the stunted look of cretinism. To spare the people from having harder lives, the elders sent this stranger on his way, to not change the ways of the village.

A commentary:

Yvain has seen the misery of Haiti and India firsthand; but it seems only with his eyes.

Comment author: shminux 01 October 2012 11:47:42PM 9 points [-]

if modafinil were legal, it would become expected, and everything would be harder to match the increased ability of humans to be productive.

I tend to agree that this is a silly argument, especially given that it can be applied to coffee as much as to modafinil, so we better ban coffee, lest those allergic to it be at a disadvantage.

Comment author: Pfft 02 October 2012 02:54:37AM 7 points [-]

Or indeed to any technology. You may think you are better off using a combine harvester instead of a sickle, but actually it just shifts the expectation of how much grain you need to produce.

Comment author: MixedNuts 02 October 2012 10:19:54AM 5 points [-]

Yvain says in his posts' comments that coffee doesn't work, as tolerance builds up. This seems disputed.

But why not ban coffee? Because, like alcohol, it's now too ingrained in our culture. But if it wasn't - preventing headaches, irritability, concentration troubles, and the expectation that everyone can pull all-nighters? Fuck yes.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 October 2012 01:38:10PM *  3 points [-]

So, the world would be a better place if people like me (who drink butter-coffee everyday) had to give up their favorite health food or risk jail time? Consider me skeptical.

Comment author: MixedNuts 02 October 2012 02:04:52PM 1 point [-]

Does it not work with decaf?

Comment author: drethelin 02 October 2012 05:00:32PM 1 point [-]

Coffee may not work to generate more virtual hours of productive time in the long run but that doesn't mean that it's use in time shifting sleep requirements etc isn't still of net benefit.

Comment author: gwern 02 October 2012 06:33:47PM 1 point [-]
Comment author: MixedNuts 02 October 2012 06:45:18PM 0 points [-]

I've been thinking about qat a lot these past few days, so I'll tap out of the Far mode discussion. Just this: my problem with coffee is that people are often given too much work, which they require coffee and similar stimulants to accomplish. (Witness: programmers' love for soda; project deadlines at university.) Qat doesn't seem to have that problem.

It does have another problem: if you don't want coffee, it's usually socially acceptable to drink another hot beverage (though if you don't want tea either you're kinda screwed), whereas qat lacks an alternative.

Comment author: gwern 02 October 2012 07:38:46PM 0 points [-]

Given the third world's fondness for tobacco (eg. apparently China is now the largest and growing tobacco market in the world), isn't chewing tobacco an alternative?

Comment author: Mitchell_Porter 02 October 2012 12:04:54AM 21 points [-]

What is his main proposition? He has a model of the world in which enormous amounts of energy and money are being spent running a rat race where the satisfaction only comes from winning it, not from running it, and meanwhile there are numerous places where just a small fraction of that energy and money could be spent, creating great and lasting benefits. His proposition is that in the current situation, modafinil is known mostly to a minority which includes people working on some of those important neglected matters, but if modafinil becomes as well known as Prozac or Viagra, its main consequence will be that the rats in the rat race will all run faster, with no net benefit.

Your comments imply that you disagree with this model, but you need to say where and why.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 October 2012 02:23:31AM 18 points [-]

I think that Yvain's thoughts on the matter are poisoned by working in a poisoned field. Would doctors be better if they studied 16 hours a day, instead of 10? Some, but not much. Perhaps people would live a bit longer- but better for everyone to adopt intermittent fasting than to slightly improve the quality of doctors.

But why only give modafinil to studying medical students, and not those who hold lives in their tiring hands instead of books? Given the hideous prevalence of medical errors, and their known association to fatigue, I would far prefer a doctor chemically warded against fatigue to one without such armor.

(I might agree that financiers all turning to modafinil would not noticeably improve the world, and make them worse off- but, truly, he made his example doctors?)

Few engineers, scientists, or programmers that I know would give voice to the complaint that others might work harder. Their whole fields are suffused with positive externalities. When the other groups in my field discover more truths, I am enlightened by their work. When an engineer designs a better device, I am the richer for it. When a programmer writes more and better code, the world hums along more smoothly for it. If more of the world moved at startup speed, and it took new chemicals to make it that way, then all hail the new chemicals! As mentioned in the comments on the livejournal post, caffeine and tobacco are linked to the industrial age, as firmly as alcohol is to the agricultural age. If modafinil becomes the drug of choice for the information age, we will all be the richer for it.

To put it in terms of the model: yes, enormous amounts of energy and money are being spent on positional goods. But modern man's hampster wheel is enough of a ladder that spinning it around faster will result in it climbing more swiftly. Why think that it is solely our tribe that propels the world forward? We do not wear shoes made by rationalists, but by rats.

Indeed, consider what it would look like if Prozac or Viagra were Schedule IV substances, only used by a very specific kind of geek. Would the world be superior, or are happiness and horniness absolute goods, not positional? It seems to me as ridiculous to declare that it is good that the teeming masses do not use modafinil as it would be to declare that it is good that the teeming masses do not use antidepressants. Such altruism and love for one's fellows!

Comment author: MixedNuts 02 October 2012 10:16:23AM 12 points [-]

Given the hideous prevalence of medical errors, and their known association to fatigue, I would far prefer a doctor chemically warded against fatigue to one without such armor.

No, the new equilibrium would be 96-hour shifts, with doctors to their physical limits and making as many errors (modulo differences in attention at constant fatigue induced by modafinil, if any).

Comment author: cousin_it 02 October 2012 11:15:09AM *  7 points [-]

When a programmer writes more and better code, the world hums along more smoothly for it.

A lot of code is written to win arms races, not improve the world. Online ads, algorithmic trading, the defense industry...

Comment author: drethelin 02 October 2012 04:57:24PM 2 points [-]

Arms races are strong driver of world improvement.

Comment author: evand 02 October 2012 12:55:10AM 7 points [-]

It bothers me that no one is applying a reversal test here. The paper even calls out intelligence augmentation as the prime example!

I'm inclined to trust Bostrom's well thought out paper on the matter, but I'd be curious to hear opposing views.

Comment author: Yvain 02 October 2012 07:13:16AM *  5 points [-]

I might endorse a certain very specific reversal test.

If I could choose between the current world except that freethinkers are at a significant disadvantage relative to everyone else, versus a world with a four hour workday but we all had to sleep four hours more per night so we still had the same amount of free time, plus our economy was at the same level as in the 1990s...

...then actually I would choose the current world, because the four hours more sleep per night would also apply on the weekends and so totally disrupt the balance, which I hadn't thought of at all in the original post. So never mind.

Comment author: Gabriel 02 October 2012 10:54:41AM 5 points [-]

This assumption that all the change in the amount of waking hours would go towards increasing (or decreasing) labour time is suspect. I mean, why couldn't people keep the current ratio, work 50-hour workweeks and get 14 additional hours of leisure time per week? The rich get better yachts and everybody has more fun.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 October 2012 09:11:13AM *  1 point [-]

It bothers me that no one is applying a reversal test here.

Vaniver has, now. EDIT: and shminux had already done so.

Comment author: Yvain 02 October 2012 02:16:33AM *  12 points [-]

Yvain has seen the misery of Haiti and India firsthand; but it seems only with his eyes.

I very specifically mentioned potential First World outlays to Third World countries as exceptions to my point. For example, I said:

There may be useful indirect actions, like advancing technology, increasing tax revenue that can be spent on useful absolute goods, and increasing the amount that flows as charity to the Third World (emphasis added)

Other than that, my entire argument was based on the "happiness follows economic growth up to a certain point, then stops" argument that has been mentioned here so many times before. That means a parable talking about how great certain interventions could be for the Third World is irrelevant; the post was very specifically and explicitly aimed at the First.

(I also think the benefits from lack of iodine deficiency are a lot less siphon-away-able)

The "60% serious" number may indeed be too high, though. I meant it to signal that I thought the argument was correct in all of its main points, but probably falls apart because the increase in productivity would produce very small benefits rather than no benefits, and "very small benefits" multiplied by the entire economy still end out pretty huge, especially if some of them end out in the Third World through the indirect methods I mentioned earlier.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 October 2012 03:01:13AM *  4 points [-]

I very specifically mentioned potential First World outlays to Third World countries as exceptions to my point:

The other organ I was looking for was not the heart but the head. Why are some people poor, and others rich? We run on our golden treadmills faster and longer, and what do we get out of it? Something, it would seem; the indigent in America do not eat mud to feel something in their belly.

Other than that, my entire argument was based on the "happiness follows economic growth up to a certain point, then stops" argument that has been mentioned here so many times before

Happiness! A life's value is not denominated in smiles. How does satisfaction relate to economic growth?

(I also think the benefits from lack of iodine deficiency are a lot less siphon-away-able)

One day, a stranger came to the village. He carried with him a curious dried herb and sack of seed. The herb's leaves, he claimed, could be brewed into a soporific tea. Those that took it he would sleep twelve hours a day, instead of eight.

The elders again convened to consider the stranger's tea. If one man took it, that man would get less done- but if all men took it, then one man's loss would be balanced by the other's. Many in the village were fond of their dreams, they said to each other, and so the weed seemed a boon.

When they brought the tea before the village, many nodded at the wisdom of the elders, but one farmer, so poor he had to pull his plow himself, balked. "If you shorten my day," he said with despair, "then I must shorten my fields, for there are only so many days in the year one can plow, and my poor feet can only move so quickly."

A woman spoke next. "Sixteen hours of spinning buys me four fish; enough to feed myself and my three children. If I can only spin for twelve hours, then I will only get enough cloth for three fish- and which of my children would you have me not feed?"

The elders did not answer, but then one of the elder's sons spoke. "I already pay for candles to make my day longer," he said, "as the sun does not give me as many hours to read as I would like. If you shorten my day, then you shrink how large my mind may grow, for there are more books out there than a lifetime of reading, and yet I would read as many as I can."

A singer was next, her mellifluous voice carrying easily across the village square. "I enjoy my dreams as much as the next woman, but I enjoy the sound of my voice more." There were chuckles as she admitted to one of the village's many jokes. "To only sing for twelve hours a day would make me and my listeners that much poorer."

Others moved to speak, but the elders were elders because they could see which way the wind blew. "We will run this stranger and his poison weed out of our village!" they declared, and the stranger was soon running towards the woods, watched by angry eyes.

I meant it to signal that I thought the argument was correct in all of its main points, but probably falls apart because the increase in productivity would produce very small benefits rather than no benefits, and "very small benefits" multiplied by the entire economy still end out pretty huge

By 60% serious you mean you expect it is wrong? That is not how I treat my seriousness.

Comment author: MixedNuts 02 October 2012 10:09:20AM 0 points [-]

which of my children would you have me not feed?

If every spinster drinks the sleeping tea, less cloth will be made, but people will need it just as much. Thus cloth will become more precious, and people will be willing to pay 4/3 of the old price. The kids won't starve.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 02 October 2012 10:34:11AM *  4 points [-]

If every spinster drinks the sleeping tea, less cloth will be made, but people will need it just as much. Thus cloth will become more precious, and people will be willing to pay 4/3 of the old price. The kids won't starve.

Instead, someone else goes unclothed.

More generally, if everyone drinks the tea and produces only 3/4 as much, everyone, on average, will be 1/4 poorer. Price movements only affect how the poverty is distributed. (Of course, they also affect what new resources are tapped, what new inventions are made, how hard people will work during their reduced hours, how existing resources are redistributed among their uses, and how effort will be redistributed among the different productive activities, but that is going beyond the purpose of the parable.)

Comment author: MixedNuts 02 October 2012 02:03:47PM 3 points [-]

Yvain's premise is that the country is warm, so people only make clothes to show off their wealth, ability to sew, and taste in fashion. Someone decides "I was already reluctant to buy those expensive rags, now they're just too expensive" and joins the ranks of streakers.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 October 2012 08:16:51PM 1 point [-]

less cloth will be made, but people will need it just as much

So is demand for cloth elastic, or is it not?

Comment author: [deleted] 02 October 2012 08:15:24PM 1 point [-]
Comment author: othercriteria 02 October 2012 12:24:22PM *  -2 points [-]

Aimed for cleverness, failed. Apologies. Retracting.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 October 2012 01:25:28PM 2 points [-]

It's the right word.

Bludgeoning people with poorly-constructed polls isn't kosher, particularly when you're wrong in the first place.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 02 October 2012 01:32:37PM -1 points [-]

Downvoting you for attempting to abuse my vote.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 October 2012 08:18:05PM 0 points [-]

What was this about? Just curious.

Comment author: othercriteria 02 October 2012 10:20:19PM 1 point [-]

I (arguably incorrectly) brought attention to the usage of "spinster". The snark I intended came off as chiding. Plus, my post cited the recent philosophy poll in a way that was pedantic at best.

If there was anything of redeeming value, I would have left it up rather than blanking the post pre-retraction...

Comment author: Vaniver 02 October 2012 07:45:06PM 0 points [-]

How many fish does the fisherman catch in an hour?

Comment author: [deleted] 03 October 2012 01:14:41AM *  1 point [-]

Happiness! A life's value is not denominated in smiles.

It's not denominated in dollars either, and if I had to pick one word to stand for humans' terminal values it would be much ‘closer’ to “happiness” than to “economy”.

Comment author: gwern 02 October 2012 03:41:41AM 19 points [-]

That's a very long winded way of objecting to Yvain's model of the American economy as largely zero-sum games (eg. poker). If the village is a static economy with fixed output... Then sure, modafinil is fairly questionable. But this story is a way of asserting it is not with hypothetical examples.

Of course, it's not obvious that iodine is necessarily a good thing. Malthusian models come to mind: if intelligence has no effect on subsistence wage, then it can have no effect on per capita wealth and so any effects are redistributional, and if you want to argue it's a good thing you need to appeal to extra things like quality of life... which actually probably would affect subsistence wage since now you don't need so much wages, your quality of life has been improved. Intelligence might come with a one-time increase in wealth, which of course simply causes the population to expand and that the temporarily-increased-per-capita-wealth will eventually fall back down to equilibrium as people reproduce more. :)

"It was a bit sloppy essay of Yvain - cool idea, kinda weak execution" is what I might say if he had posted it to Main instead of his blog.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 October 2012 04:08:13AM 1 point [-]

That's a very long winded way of objecting to Yvain's model of the American economy as largely zero-sum games (eg. poker).

Agreed. That is the heart of my objection, but if I simply say "the economy is not zero-sum!" then those that agree with me will agree with me and those that disagree with me might not see why. I do wish that I had thought to use the reversal test as my example.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 October 2012 03:55:03AM *  13 points [-]

I disapprove of this thread on the principle that people should be able to idly speculate on their own blog without being harangued elsewhere.

I disapprove of your use of parables to smuggle in your economic hypotheses, rather than arguing for them competently and clearly.

I disapprove of your commentary, because I agree with wedrifid here:

(Claiming to have) mind read negative beliefs and motives in others then declaring them publicly tends to be frowned upon. Certainly it is frowned upon me.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 October 2012 04:27:08AM 6 points [-]

I disapprove of your use of parables to smuggle in your economic hypotheses, rather than arguing for them competently and clearly.

Very well.

First, people prefer longer lives to shorter ones.

Second, just as it is difficult to think of goods that are only absolute, it is difficult to think of goods that are only positional. The used car provides $4,500 in transportation value; the Ferrari provides $50,000 in transportation value.

Third, many professions create durable value and large positive externalities. 25% more lawyering or 25% more derivative trading may not have obvious positive benefits, but 25% more programming or 25% more engineering or 25% more science obviously do. Crunch time may be 20 hours a day instead of 16, and so the programmers have just as little time to themselves, but the product will actually be superior, which seems like a Pareto gain.

Fourth, phase changes have effects that are difficult to anticipate. A world that moved at startup speed- where more people were massively productive and focused- could be far more glorious, delightful, and pleasant than our world. It is difficult to imagine just how miserable conditions were when society was liquid, rather than a gas; similarly, it is difficult for a gas to imagine the joys of being a plasma.

I disapprove of your commentary

I agree it was insufficiently clear. I meant that Yvain has seen societies that are both liquid and gas, and I do not see how someone who grasped the difference between those phases could write a post like his.

Comment author: CronoDAS 02 October 2012 09:05:17AM 5 points [-]

I agree it was insufficiently clear. I meant that Yvain has seen societies that are both liquid and gas, and I do not see how someone who grasped the difference between those phases could write a post like his.

I don't think I understand the metaphor here.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 October 2012 08:09:00PM *  3 points [-]

Haiti is miserably poorer than America, in large part because of its people and its institutions. Not just in the sense of physical goods, but in most of the things that make life grand, and the things that make life annoying.

Similarly, we are poorer than the future will be- again, because of people and institutions. (Technology- as in, knowledge about reality and devices that make clever use of that knowledge- is the result of people and institutions.)

Importantly, this is not just in the sense of physical goods. It is one thing to compare a McMansion to a comfortably sized home; it is another to compare the sort of life lived by someone who lives in a world where they can buy a customized continent to someone who lives in a world where they can buy a McMansion.

And so, in light of those changes, to look at a spark that could ionize our gas and say "but we'll just be running in circles faster!" seems to miss the point. No, when every manager is a clear-headed executive, commercial organizations will be better run and more pleasant to deal with, and the sorts of things we can do will go from great to fantastic. What does it matter that the yachts will be longer and the quays more crowded with them?

Comment author: CronoDAS 03 October 2012 01:34:05AM 2 points [-]

Thank you.

Comment author: Gabriel 02 October 2012 10:39:52AM *  6 points [-]

I agree it was insufficiently clear. I meant that Yvain has seen societies that are both liquid and gas, and I do not see how someone who grasped the difference between those phases could write a post like his.

You are overestimating the value of reasoning by metaphor and the extent to which your metaphors are shared by others.

When I take a pot of water and heat it, it becomes gas. If I seal the pot and keep heating, it won't become plasma. It will blow up in my face. See, a metaphor!

Comment author: Vaniver 02 October 2012 08:10:01PM 1 point [-]

You are overestimating the value of reasoning by metaphor and the extent to which your metaphors are shared by others.

It would seem so, and I will try to adjust my style from here on out. Writing was easier when most were a step or two removed from the farm.

Comment author: Yvain 02 October 2012 07:17:15AM *  6 points [-]

I disapprove of this thread on the principle that people should be able to idly speculate on their own blog without being harangued elsewhere.

Thank you :)

EDIT: Actually, see here

Comment author: palladias 02 October 2012 03:22:21PM 7 points [-]

I disapprove of this thread on the principle that people should be able to idly speculate on their own blog without being harangued elsewhere.

Is this meant to apply just to LessWrongers? Because it seems kosher to discuss and critique blog posts generally in open threads.

Comment author: Yvain 02 October 2012 10:24:12PM 9 points [-]

On second thought, you make a good point. The problem wasn't Vaniver bringing it up, the problem was me not putting clear muflax-like epistemic state warnings on my blog.

Comment author: thomblake 02 October 2012 03:39:30PM 5 points [-]

I disapprove of this thread on the principle that people should be able to idly speculate on their own blog without being harangued elsewhere.

I disagree with your disapproval. While perhaps one wouldn't want to be "harangued", it is entirely appropriate to comment on publicly-available texts, and the open thread here is a perfectly acceptable place to do so.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 October 2012 03:59:34PM 2 points [-]

The emphasis (and hence the use of the word "harangued" over neutral variants like "discussed" or "criticized") was on the inappropriateness of Vaniver's repeated emotional appeals and status attacks against Yvain.

Forum switching is a well-known trolling technique that dates back to Usenet, and indeed possibly further.

Comment author: chaosmosis 03 October 2012 11:02:15PM 1 point [-]

It would have been legit if there was a link posted to the blog.

Comment author: TraderJoe 03 October 2012 10:09:23AM *  5 points [-]

Although I'm unsure of the etiquette of posting about personal blogs on other sites, I was also disappointed with the blog post in question. It was the first time that Yvain wrote something I disagreed with after reading his post in full and digesting in. I've often disagreed with him before reading it, but he usually persuades me.

This post seemed to rely on the principle that having more spare time is a positional good, with which I disagree strongly. Essentially, giving everyone another four hours of awake, productive time, is the same as extending your life by four hours for each day you are alive [and you do so in good health - extending the human lifespan from 80 to 95 might or might not be a good thing, but adding years to your healthy, productive life, seems a good thing]

Yvain's claim seems to be that 100% of the extra four hours will be diverted into work, but to me that's a) almost certainly not true [the figure would be more than 0% and less than 100%], b) not a bad thing.

a) It seems very likely that, given that our day is > 0% work and > 0% leisure, an extra four hours a day will add more than 0 hours of leisure.

b) If all med students get more studying done, it's far from obvious that the net result is a bad one. I assume that there is some value to med students' knowledge of medicine [okay, for anatomy courses this might not hold]. If, say, Apple workers work 50% more, then we stand to get better and faster Macs]

Comment author: TraderJoe 03 October 2012 10:13:18AM 4 points [-]

What might convince me that Modafinil is a bad thing would be if a lot of people actively disliked the time they spent working. I personally assume most people roughly like or are neutral towards their jobs and mainly want to work shorter hours because it gives them more time for things outside of work, but I'm almost certainly generalizing from the example of me. If Yvain had made this argument I would understand more about where he was coming from and why.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 03 October 2012 11:19:25AM *  2 points [-]

In some professions saying that you "love you work" is a signal of a good employee. So I would expect some dishonesty in self-reporting.

How could we ask the question to reduce this signalling? I imagine only silly questions like this:

Imagine that for some external reasons your workplace must be closed for two weeks. During those two weeks you will receive your normal salary, and those two weeks will not be taken from your holidays. How does this message make you feel?
a) awesome!
b) mildly happy
c) neutral
d) mildly sad
e) depressed

On the second thought, is this question really silly, or does it show our true preferences? And the silliness is merely a reflection of dissonance between our professed values and real values.

Comment author: TraderJoe 03 October 2012 11:29:45AM 6 points [-]

This doesn't quite answer the question. I would be very happy if my place of work were closed and I could do fun things for two weeks. My objection to working isn't that work is unpleasant; it's that there's a high opportunity cost [all the fun people I could hang out with, the great books I could read, etc]. A better question is "imagine you are asked for your employer to take part in an experiment where you instead have your brain turned off. Your body ages by eight hours, but your brain experiences it as "you step into the office, then step out".

It retains the silliness but solves the opportunity cost problem.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 03 October 2012 07:47:41PM 1 point [-]

You are right about the opportunity costs. The work is actually not bad -- it's the idea of all the things I could have done in the same time that's driving me crazy.

Your question is better (although it does not contain learning during the job, which is important too).

Comment author: TraderJoe 04 October 2012 06:47:07AM *  0 points [-]

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Comment author: TraderJoe 03 October 2012 10:14:21AM *  1 point [-]

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Comment author: gwern 03 October 2012 04:40:59PM 3 points [-]

Doctors don't take courses in modafinil, or anything, so I'm not sure what you expect them to base their advice on besides the FDA prescribing guides like http://www.erowid.org/smarts/modafinil/modafinil_provigil_prescribing_info1.pdf

Comment author: atorm 04 October 2012 05:10:33AM 1 point [-]

A pharmacist might be a better bet.

Comment author: TraderJoe 04 October 2012 06:49:39AM *  0 points [-]

[comment deleted]

Comment author: Morendil 01 October 2012 10:43:32PM 17 points [-]

Today my 16yo son asked a classmate for a confidence interval on his grade at their latest assignment, after giving one of his own. That's after all 3 of my kids attended a workshop I gave (mixed in with adults, 20 total) on calibrated probability statements and scoring.

Never mind that he gave a 90% interval and missed (due to getting full marks), I'm inordinately proud of him for actually applying the lessons.

Comment author: gjm 02 October 2012 08:58:30AM 1 point [-]

Not inordinately.

Comment author: MixedNuts 02 October 2012 09:54:05AM 8 points [-]

Less-than-sincere modesty is probably the culprit for missing the interval.

Comment author: chaosmosis 03 October 2012 10:53:34PM *  5 points [-]

Intelligent social signaling is another possible explanation. He's 16, after all. On the other hand, anyone who's giving out or requesting confidence intervals at age 16 is probably not too concerned with social signalling, or else is really bad at it.

Comment author: drethelin 04 October 2012 03:43:27AM 6 points [-]

It's a perfect social signal. It's costly in that it shows his nerdiness to everyone, but the actual level of nerdiness is impressive to everyone who values nerdiness.

Comment author: DanielLC 02 October 2012 06:20:17AM 2 points [-]

Why wasn't slavery outlawed quickly after the US started? I would expect the free non-slaveholders would vote against slavery, since they wouldn't want to compete with slaves, and they'd outnumber the slaveholders.

Comment author: drethelin 02 October 2012 06:30:27AM 1 point [-]

"Vote against slavery" is not something that happens in a vacuum. There isn't someone reading minds who realizes the country has a majority of people who would prefer slavery be illegal (even if you ignore the minds of the slaves), and calls a vote to happen on the issue of "should slavery be a thing". In any given district (town, city, country, whatever area), you would have to campaign and convince people both that they would be better off without slavery, AND that this means it should be illegal. There are reasons why people don't form coalitions of 80 percent to rob the 20 percent.

Comment author: DanielLC 02 October 2012 07:03:29AM 0 points [-]

There isn't someone reading minds who realizes the country has a majority of people who would prefer slavery be illegal

The politicians have incentive to know what the majority of people think, and they are quite capable of asking people.

and calls a vote to happen on the issue of "should slavery be a thing".

If a candidate makes it their platform that they'll free the slaves, that's basically what the vote will come down to. If it's clear enough, both candidates will have it in their platform, and there won't even be a vote.

you would have to campaign and convince people both that they would be better off without slavery,

They seemed to work out that they don't want immigrants, women, and children taking their jobs. It didn't happen until the industrial revolution, but they weren't taking their jobs until then. Why would slaves be different?

AND that this means it should be illegal.

I know they made it illegal for children to work. I don't remember hearing anything like that about women, though. Also, once slavery started getting outlawed in a few states, you'd think people would be more willing to outlaw in it other states.

There are reasons why people don't form coalitions of 80 percent to rob the 20 percent.

I remember something about one state mandating that all contracts could be payed in cash (as opposed to gold), knowing full well that their cash was worthless. They essentially forced all the banks to forgive the debts of the farmers.

Comment author: CronoDAS 02 October 2012 09:06:32AM *  1 point [-]

In a lot of places, you had to own property to vote.

(Also, there were plenty of places where slavery was, indeed, outlawed relatively quickly. Just not everywhere.)

Comment author: DanielLC 02 October 2012 06:05:48PM 1 point [-]

That would seem to explain it.

Looking into it more, it doesn't quite seem to fit. According to the Wikipedia page on Jacksonian democracy, nearly all requirements to own property were dropped by 1850, and the Voting rights in the United States page seems to imply that it ended completely by 1860, but the civil war wasn't until 1861. Was it just that people don't stop it that quickly, and had the South been allowed to leave, they would have outlawed slavery in a few decades?

I still would prefer it if I could find something saying exactly when slavery ended and when voting was allowed for non-property owners.

Also, I'm curious as to how and when slavery ended in different countries. Unfortunately, my schooling has been somewhat biased.

Comment author: CronoDAS 03 October 2012 01:57:33AM 2 points [-]

The property requirements might have kept slavery from being banned while it was getting started, though. As for the whole "not wanting to compete with slaves" thing, that wasn't actually a factor. As I understand it, slaves weren't looked on as competition; rather, they were the people even the poorest whites got to look down upon. No matter how low on the proverbial totem pole a white person fell, they could still feel superior to black people. To quote HPMOR:

"To sum up," Harry finished, "they don't have any power themselves. They don't have any wealth themselves. If they didn't have Muggleborns to hate, if all the Muggleborns vanished the way they say they want, they'd wake up one morning and find they had nothing. But so long as they can say purebloods are superior, they can feel superior themselves, they can feel like part of the master class. Even though your father would never dream of inviting them to dinner, even though there's not one Galleon in their vaults, even if they did worse on their OWLs than the worst Muggleborn in Hogwarts. Even if they can't cast the Patronus Charm any more. Everything is the Muggleborns' fault to them, they have someone besides themselves to blame for their own failures, and that makes them even weaker. That's what Slytherin House is becoming, pathetic, and the root of the problem is hating Muggleborns."

Comment author: DanielLC 03 October 2012 04:09:25AM 0 points [-]

People can look down on immigrants too, but that doesn't keep them from getting mad at them for taking their jobs and trying to enact laws to restrict immigration.

Comment author: evand 02 October 2012 05:35:40PM 4 points [-]

Why not also vote to prohibit holding capital? People get rich by owning capital, and it's hard to compete with them if you don't. What's the difference?

I think you're conflating your ethical views on slavery with what you wish other people would decide for consequential reasons.

Comment author: DanielLC 02 October 2012 06:11:49PM 0 points [-]

Why not also vote to prohibit holding capital?

People have, but it's not that common. Also, when communism is instituted, it's often by revolution rather than voting. There is a lot of incentive for the rich and powerful to be against it, but it only takes a comparatively small number of people who'd rather be powerful than rich.

Were there enough historical examples of this happening and failing horribly to stop this? Were the elite just really good at convincing people it was a bad idea? If so, did their ability to do so correlate with it actually being a bad idea?

Comment author: evand 02 October 2012 06:29:53PM *  0 points [-]

People have, but it's not that common.

Perhaps I should have explained better, but that was sort of my point. You ask why an event didn't happen, and I pointed out that the event seems to be rare. I don't think it requires a circumstances-specific reason. Or, put more simply: people didn't do that because people didn't do stuff like that then.

Also, I don't think there are many instances of people voting out the capitalists before the Communist Manifesto, which was published in 1848. That's well after "quickly after the US started". I don't think the timing is entirely coincidental.

Comment author: DanielLC 02 October 2012 06:32:33PM 0 points [-]

I don't think it requires a circumstances-specific reason.

Can you give me a circumstances-nonspecific reason?

Also, I don't think there are many instances of people voting out the capitalists before the Communist Manifesto, which was published in 1848.

I haven't heard of any, but I don't know much history.

Comment author: evand 02 October 2012 06:39:51PM 0 points [-]

Can you give me a circumstances-nonspecific reason?

Sure, here are a few off the top of my head, not having done any research. There are strong social norms against taking other people's property. The prevailing culture of the time held this norm. Other people owning slaves has little direct impact on most people. I don't think the economic competition argument was one likely to be known or understood by those competing with slaves, so I don't think they would have made it. People who could make that argument were busy doing other things with their wealth. Status quo bias is generally strong.

For circumstances-specific logic, I'd suggest reading up on the period debates surrounding slavery; there certainly were some at high levels. I think the decisions were mainly made on political grounds, and by people who liked the economics the way they were.

Comment author: Larks 03 October 2012 09:42:29AM *  2 points [-]

People get rich by owning capital, and it's hard to compete with them if you don't. What's the difference?

Workers compete with other workers, not capitalists. Worker wages are positively associated with the level of capital accumulation in society.

In the slavery example, free workers compete with slaves, not slave owners.

Comment author: taelor 02 October 2012 06:19:39PM 2 points [-]

For one thing, one of the main groups suporting seperating from Great Britain (especially in the southern colonies) were slaveholders who were scared that the British were going to outlaw slavery (something that they had threatened to do in response to the revolution).

Comment author: DanielLC 02 October 2012 06:29:49PM 0 points [-]

That would explain why they would try to institute a form of government that would not abolish slavery. I'm more interested in how the particular form of government they instituted would not immediately abolish slavery. CronoDAS largely answered that question.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 03 October 2012 02:06:20PM 5 points [-]

I don't know anything about the politics of slavery in the US at the time, but in general, a relevant question is: how strongly did the non-slaveholders desire slavery to be outlawed, as compared to their desires with regard to other issues?

In general, in politics it's quite common that the majority of the populace has a moderate preference to do X, a much smaller fraction of the populace has a very strong preference to not do X, and the desires of the minority win out. For the majority, the issue might not be important enough that they'd change their vote because of it, especially if the politician in question supports other issues who the people feel are more important. For the minority, however, the issue may be important enough to be the deciding factor in whom they vote. So the politican will maximize their votes by doing what the minority wants with regard to issue X, and what the majority wants with regard to everything else. At the same time, if the minority and majority vote for different politicians, then it's beneficial for the elected politicians to barter votes, so that the majority "buys" the minority's support for laws that they might not be able to pass otherwise, in exchange for giving the minority what they want on an issue that feels less important for the majority.

Of course, all of this presumes that the voters act "rationally", and give their support to the candidates who most accurately match the desires of the voters. Pretty much everything that we know about voter behavior says that this isn't the case. (Rationally was in scare quotes because, given how little influence a single vote actually has on an election, not bothering to figure out what your candidate actually does may in fact be the most rational use of your time.)

Comment author: beoShaffer 03 October 2012 07:14:35PM *  1 point [-]

On a somewhat related note, non-slaveholders often bought goods that involved slave labor at some point in the process of their production. It's quite possible that they at least thought that freeing the slaves would raise the cost of their tobacco, clothes ect. edited to add This is a bit more speculative, but I suspect that labor was significaly non-fungibal, and in particular that Northerner's didn't consider Southern agricultural jobs to be closely tied to their own labor market.

Comment author: chaosmosis 03 October 2012 10:50:36PM *  0 points [-]

Also, poor white Southerners supported slavery because they had racial pride.

Comment author: thomblake 03 October 2012 05:58:27PM 1 point [-]

As I understand it, people suspected something like the Civil War would happen if they tried that.

A lot of compromises were made to forge a single country out of this mess.

Comment author: Blackened 02 October 2012 09:20:58PM 2 points [-]

I'm writing my CV now and was wondering whether I should indeed be "as confident as possible" (which basically means, according to some people, that I'm limited to sentences that don't even contain words like "but", "mostly", "although" etc.). Overconfidence is a killer of rationality, and displaying it might signal that you're irrational. I would personally trust much more someone who actively doubts in many things he says, rather than someone who is always confident. However, some people say the opposite.

I was wondering how should I approach my CV? Would it attract more rational employers if it's more self-skeptical? I'm not going to take it to a degree where it's as self-skeptical as I usually get when I give my honest advice on something (pointing out as many assumptions and dependencies on sources of information as possible, and sounding like nobody else I know, based on a very quick search). But still wondering whether this would get me a more irrational employer, and would some of you actually trust more someone who sounds confident.

Comment author: Larks 03 October 2012 09:41:10AM 6 points [-]

Yes you should be as confident as possible.

In interview, you can admit that you used to have flaws, which you identified and corrected, but this is as close as you can get.

Comment author: Blackened 03 October 2012 10:11:28AM 3 points [-]

Why do you think so? I would personally like more people who are actively talking about their good and bad sides, although I'm not sure if I'd do that in an interview, because it might mean they don't know what appears to be the most effective strategy.

Comment author: Epiphany 04 October 2012 07:08:52AM 3 points [-]

I don't know man, but that weird habit of humans drives me up a friggin wall.

Comment author: Epiphany 04 October 2012 07:07:28AM *  2 points [-]

I've heard that cover letters are not very popular these days, some people are doing away with them and viewing them as just another thing that can get you rejected.

Before you put a lot of effort into this, you might want to check around and see if anyone even wants cover letters anymore. I know at least one significant company that does not even accept them.

Comment author: RobertLumley 03 October 2012 02:47:31AM 3 points [-]

Has anyone noticed any problems with the comment score below threshold feature? I have my preferences to show all comments, regardless of score, and this comment is hidden from me for some reason.

Comment author: Manfred 03 October 2012 10:28:21AM 1 point [-]

Huh, ditto, and un-downvoting it didn't make it stop being hidden.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 03 October 2012 01:58:09PM 1 point [-]

Yes, and here's another. On the page of all that user's posts, it does appear, at -4. But the permalink to the post shows it as hidden.

Is this a bug or a new feature?

Comment author: RobertLumley 03 October 2012 02:07:57PM *  1 point [-]

My guess is that it's a bug caused by the new troll feeding penalty where you automatically lose 5 karma if you reply to a comment at -3 or below. But I don't really have any evidence to corroborate that.

And I don't think downvoted comments have ever been hidden if on a users page. I'm not sure though, I set my preferences to see all comments as soon as I created my LW account. I have negative associations with things being hidden from me and I'm too curious not to open it up and look anyway.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 October 2012 08:25:34PM 2 points [-]

A query about The Dark Knight on Marginal Revolution originally from Brad Allen:

I was watching the Dark Knight on a bus yesterday evening (I’m not sure how familiar you are with the movie) – there was a scene that I thought was pretty interesting to think through, and was curious how you might go about it.

There is a scene where the Joker kills a mob boss, and then gives his 3 subordinates one half broken pool cue – and basically tells them that to live, the other two have to die. You don’t see what happens, but what do you think happens? Is it advantageous to pick up the pool cue, or would that signal the other two to attack you first? Would you try to back out and let the other two fight? Or would that incent them to come after you? OR does everyone do nothing, until a last second dash like bicycle sprints?

Obviously, I’ve had fun thinking about this. Do you have any guesses?

Comment author: gwern 03 October 2012 10:43:01PM *  3 points [-]
Comment author: chaosmosis 03 October 2012 10:48:33PM *  4 points [-]

I think the best move would be to back off. They'd be unsure whether to pursue you or to defend themselves against the person closest to them. Mutual uncertainty on their part means they'll attack each other first, instead of pursuing you. Whoever won would get the pool stick, but they'd also be tired and you'd have an advantage. You also would have had the opportunity to observe their fighting style.

Needless to say in real life I would just die.

Comment author: chaosmosis 03 October 2012 10:24:32PM 1 point [-]

I found this interesting. I personally don't think it's a paradox, but I think it's interesting that the logic behind it works.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raven_paradox

Comment author: gwern 03 October 2012 10:47:48PM *  2 points [-]

So I was musing about 'one man's modus tollens is another man's modus ponens', and about how you would put that in probabilistic terms.

It seems to be applicable to when you have a probability for P(A v B), update on positive evidence to P(A' v B'), but instead of A<A' and B<B' as one might naively expect, now it's actually either A<A' and B>B' (or same thing, A>A' and B<B').

I'm just wondering what additional stuff you need to get that; nothing mentally pops out for me as relevant.

Comment author: Rain 04 October 2012 03:29:32AM *  1 point [-]

Who here owns weapons? Pick the highest "level" if you match more than one.

Submitting...

Comment author: beoShaffer 04 October 2012 05:39:15AM 1 point [-]

May I ask why you're asking. Also, I own a two bows and a large number of arrows.

Comment author: Rain 04 October 2012 12:06:58PM 1 point [-]

Because everyone's equipping themselves to win in the intellectual realm, and I was wondering how many were equipping themselves to win in the physical realm.

Comment author: Epiphany 04 October 2012 07:04:33AM 4 points [-]

Virtualization. I think if you are virtualized (uploaded to a computer, or copied into a new brain), you still die. I keep running into people on here who seem to think that if you copy someone, this prevents them from dying. It seems that I am in the minority on this one. Am I? Has this been thoroughly debated before? I would like to start a discussion on this. Good idea / bad idea tips on presentation?

Comment author: ZankerH 04 October 2012 11:00:29AM *  11 points [-]

I think the LW consensus is that the copy is also you, and personal identity as we think of it today will have to undergo significant change once uploads and copies become a thing.