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The difficulty in predicting AI, in three lines — LessWrong

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The difficulty in predicting AI, in three lines

by Stuart_Armstrong

2nd Oct 2012

1 min read

2

An over-simplification, but an evocative one:

The social sciences are contentious, their predictions questionable.
And yet social sciences use the scientific method; AI predictions generally don't.
Hence predictions involving human-level AI should be treated as less certain than any prediction in the social sciences.

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Shmi14y20

Are you saying that these predictions are unscientific because they are based on untestable models? Or because the models are testable for "small" predictions, but the AI predictions based on them are wild extrapolations beyond the models' validity?

Stuart_Armstrong14y60

Most predictions don't use models; most models aren't tested; and AI predictions based on tested models are generally wild extrapolations.