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Manfred comments on Taking "correlation does not imply causation" back from the internet - Less Wrong Discussion

41 Post author: sixes_and_sevens 03 October 2012 12:18PM

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Comment author: Manfred 03 October 2012 08:45:19PM *  1 point [-]

I mean "I'm about to pretend that 'sexy' and 'good actor' are binary variables centered to make the math super easy." If you would like less pretending, read the Atlantic article linked by a thoughtful replier, since the author draws the nice graph to prove the general case.

Comment author: prase 03 October 2012 09:13:02PM 0 points [-]

I wouldn't like less pretending and 'sexy'/'good actor' being binary variables is fine with me (and I understand your comment overall), but still I don't know what does it mean that the groups are equally full. (Equal size? That doesn't follow from independence.)

Comment author: Manfred 03 October 2012 09:29:25PM 1 point [-]

Right, so I make the math-light but false assumption that casting directors will take above-average applicants, and also that you aren't more likely to eventually become an actor if you're sexy and can act well.

Comment author: prase 03 October 2012 10:15:33PM -2 points [-]

above-average

If you mean "above median", I see.