satt comments on Cognitive bias and conservatism - Less Wrong Discussion
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Incorporating this into the toy model shows this isn't enough to guarantee proportionality either.
My hypothetical burger shop is now in Sphericalcowland, a land where every month is 30 days. It also has a new burger-buying policy. On day 1 of each month, it buys 100 burgers for that day, then uses a meta-decision rule to decide the burger-buying decision rule for the month's remaining 29 days. Let Y be the number of customers in the previous month. If Y was no more than, say, 2500, the shop uses my earlier 100/120 decision rule for the remaining 29 days. But if Y > 2500, it uses your upgraded decision rule (buy 130 burgers if there were >100 customers the previous day, otherwise buy 110). X ~ Po(80) as before, so Y ~ Po(2400). (I've deliberately held constant the burgers bought for day 1 of each month to avoid applying a previous day-based decision rule for day 1 and causing inter-month dependencies.)
With the 100/120 decision rule, the shop buys an average of 3007.639 burgers a month. So with the 110/130 decision rule, it buys an average of 3297.639 a month.
If I don't buy a burger, E(burgers bought next month) = (3007.639 × P(Y ≤ 2500)) + (3297.639 × P(Y > 2500)) = 3013.624 burgers, by my working.
If I buy a burger, E(burgers bought next month) = (3007.639 × P(Y+1 ≤ 2500)) + (3297.639 × P(Y+1 > 2500)) = 3013.920 burgers.
Hence in this example, the upstream marginal effect of my buying 1 burger is only 0.296 burgers. The presence of feedback doesn't suffice to guarantee proportionality.
For all I know, neither do sesame seeds on buns! In any case, the American Airlines story might be apocryphal in itself. I just bring it up to illustrate that there's a countervailing anecdote to the parable.
Exactly.