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Kaj_Sotala comments on 2012 Less Wrong Census Survey: Call For Critiques/Questions - Less Wrong Discussion

20 Post author: Yvain 19 October 2012 01:12AM

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Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 21 October 2012 01:26:05PM 3 points [-]

How about some basic probability question, like the expected value of something, or something that requires you to use Bayes' theorem?

Comment author: [deleted] 21 October 2012 05:58:54PM 0 points [-]

Do you have any example in mind?

Comment author: RobertLumley 21 October 2012 07:56:13PM 2 points [-]

1% of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 80% of women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies. 9.6% of women without breast cancer will also get positive mammographies. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening. What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer?

An Intuitive Explaination of Bayes Theorem

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