Yet it is sufficiently entrenched that the Chinese government shows few signs of dropping it soon even with the 4-2-1 problem looming.
OCP hasn't been the responsibility of the central government for years. The provinces are, predictably, weakening the policy where politically feasible. From wikipedia:
In response to [4-2-1], all provinces have decided that couples are allowed to have two children if both parents were only children themselves: By 2007, all provinces in the nation except Henan had adopted this new policy; Henan followed in 2011.
I recently read an article by Steve Sailer that reminded me about something I have been puzzled by for a long time. Relevant paragraphs:
Poor people having fewer children means that the children have more resources available per capita making the children better off. Rich people having more children actually increases equality in society since it reduces the per capita resource advantage their children have. Rich people giving to their children is also one of the few cases where the redistribution of wealth doesn't reduce incentives for wealth creation. Rich people care about their children too.
Since programs aimed at reducing teen pregnancy rates do seem to have had some effect, we known something like this is possible without being horrible to the potential parents it targets.
Yet a policy of "poor people should have fewer children, rich people more" sounds heartless despite increasing general welfare both by making poor children better off and by reducing the privilege of rich children thus increasing equality which we seem to think is ceteris paribus a good thing.
Why is that?
Edit: To test the source of the reader's intuiton (assuming he shares it with me), I encourage the consideration of two interesting scenarios that may depart from reality.