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BlueSun comments on Prediction market sequence requested - Less Wrong Discussion
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Coming from an Econ background, I'm amazed that people don't understand how much information a properly functioning price mechanism conveys and how valuable it is. For me, thinking about the implications of I, Pencil was valuable in helping me understand this and I'd recommend it. People need to understand how the invisible hand and profit motive work (and have some confidence that they do) before they can understand how a prediction market can aggregate all the relevant information into a meaningful probability because prediction markets are a logical extension of those ideas.
I agree. I assumed any prediction markets sequence that would be undertaken would include this. Even one that didn't would at least be useful to the economically literate who haven't considered prediction markets yet.
That's a good point too. which brings up the question of why they're not as well accepted. I've kind of figured it was because prediction markets are a new(er) idea and "science advances one funeral at a time." I predict the next wave of economists will all think in terms of prediction markets, p=80%.