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satt comments on Prediction market sequence requested - Less Wrong Discussion

30 [deleted] 26 October 2012 10:59AM

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Comment author: satt 28 October 2012 11:42:10AM 3 points [-]

I would advise you to be careful about deciding whether an issue is solved on the basis of whether the people on the other side of it happen to hang out in the same place you do.

I'm describing what could happen on a counterfactual LW, not what should happen.

I don't intend to decide whether an issue's solved on the basis of whether people I hang out with agree with me. But I recognize that I'm human (as are you), with the accompanying cognitive biases, and the reference class forecast isn't a sunny one.

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