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Morendil comments on Quote on Nate Silver, and how to think about probabilities - Less Wrong Discussion
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If you told me I had a 1 percent chance of winning a million dollars tomorrow, I'd be excited.
If you told me I had a 1/3 chance of winning a million dollars tomorrow, I'd be excited and I'd spend at least 1/3 of the day working out plans for using that money, with a clear conscience.
(I can't find the Sequences post that needs to be linked here, the one about how a TV anchor should allocate the time writing about the two possible outcomes for an event that will be decided the next day.) ETA: that's it, thanks!
This I think.
http://lesswrong.com/lw/ia/focus_your_uncertainty/