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EHeller comments on Quote on Nate Silver, and how to think about probabilities - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: ChrisHallquist 02 November 2012 04:29AM

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Comment author: EHeller 02 November 2012 10:52:52PM 1 point [-]

I don't know much about the internals of his model, but I would say 'it depends.' I'm sure you can use his model to make predictions of the form 'given Romney victory, what should the final electoral map look like'?, etc, but I'm not sure if the public has that kind of access. Certainly questions like that can be used to probe the model after a Romney or Obama win. If either candidate wins 'in the wrong way' (i.e. carries the wrong states), its obviously stronger evidence the model is wrong than we could get from just Romney winning.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 06 November 2012 07:14:49PM 0 points [-]

'given Romney victory, what should the final electoral map look like'?

He sometimes selected such maps in blog posts, and generally has one with all of the most likely outcomes, but these maps are not always-and-automatically publicly accessible, so far as I know.