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saliency comments on Quote on Nate Silver, and how to think about probabilities - Less Wrong Discussion
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If you told me I had a 35 percent chance of winning a million dollars tomorrow, I’d try to sell you my chance for 349 thousand dollars.
I'd first look for a multi-millionaire to whom to make the offer.
I'd undercut you! Sub-linear utility and all that.
I'd try to find out what my chance of winning really was, before attempting to trade.