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CronoDAS comments on XKCD - Frequentist vs. Bayesians - Less Wrong Discussion
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Regarding the comic: if the sun exploded and it's nighttime, you could still find out by looking to see if the moon just got a lot brighter.
Or look at the nearest twitter feed.
Only if the moon is, in fact, in the night sky at the time.
No... because the time it takes the sun's increased brilliance to reach the moon and reflect to the Earth is the same as the time it takes for the Earth to be wiped out by the energy wave.
This assumes that the supernova is expanding at the speed of light.
According to wikipedia: <The explosion expels much or all of a star's material at a velocity of up to 30,000 km/s (10% of the speed of light), driving a shock wave into the surrounding interstellar medium.