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evand comments on Credence calibration game FAQ - Less Wrong Discussion

14 Post author: Academian 26 November 2012 12:52AM

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Comment author: evand 26 November 2012 04:51:29AM 2 points [-]

The difference between 60% credence and 80% credence seems much smaller to me than the difference between 90% and 99%. Is there a reason there's no option between 90% and 99%? In your testing, have you found any well-calibrated users who answer 99% a non-trivial fraction of the time?

Comment author: asparisi 26 November 2012 01:37:28PM 3 points [-]

Well, in 11 out of 145 answers (7.5%) I so far have answered 99%, and I have yet to be wrong in any of my answers.

If I continue at this rate, in approximately 1,174 more answers, I'll be able to tell you if I am well callibrated (less, if I fail at more than one answer in the intervening time)

Comment author: asparisi 26 November 2012 01:38:31PM 0 points [-]

To clarify, wrong in any of my answers at the 99% level. I have been wrong at other levels (including, surprisingly, hovering within around 1% of 90% at the 90% level.

Comment author: Alexei 06 December 2012 04:03:09AM 0 points [-]

Yes, but it also depends on your knowledge base. Unfortunately right now we don't have a lot of questions, but I hope people will add more. Then, we hope, you'll have more questions for which you can answer 99%.

Comment author: ChristianKl 03 December 2012 10:47:56PM *  0 points [-]

I would say that I know with >99% certainity that Woodrow Wilson was president earlier than George H. W. Bush.

The same is true for the fact that the atom silver gets abbreviated with Ag.