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asparisi comments on Credence calibration game FAQ - Less Wrong Discussion

14 Post author: Academian 26 November 2012 12:52AM

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Comment author: asparisi 26 November 2012 01:37:28PM 3 points [-]

Well, in 11 out of 145 answers (7.5%) I so far have answered 99%, and I have yet to be wrong in any of my answers.

If I continue at this rate, in approximately 1,174 more answers, I'll be able to tell you if I am well callibrated (less, if I fail at more than one answer in the intervening time)

Comment author: asparisi 26 November 2012 01:38:31PM 0 points [-]

To clarify, wrong in any of my answers at the 99% level. I have been wrong at other levels (including, surprisingly, hovering within around 1% of 90% at the 90% level.