Credence calibration game FAQ

Academian

Hey rationality friends, I just made this FAQ for the credence calibration game. So if you have people you'd like to introduce to it --- for example, to get them used to thinking of belief strengths as probabilities --- now is a good time :)

Also, shameless promotion: please tweet/g+/like it; I want the world to be thinking in probabilities ASAP!

*Also*, please email me (critch@math.berkeley.edu) if you're good at making apps quickly and are interested in improving the game or making a variant of it; I'm swamped in job applications right now, but could easily have a Skype or phone conversation about our cache of ideas for improvements / variations (e.g. collecting user data on a server, more question types, a variant awarding gambles rather than deterministic scores, a variant with clickable emotion buttons for the user...).

Cheers!

Also, shameless promotion: please tweet/g+/like it; I want the world to be thinking in probabilities ASAP!

Cheers!

What is a high score? I realize that there is no absolute scale, but I have no idea if 10 is good or 1000 is bad.

One anecdata point: after 200 answers I have an average score of 12.6; I have success rates of 54% for "50%" answers, 59% for "60%" answers, 75% for "70%" answers, 88% for "80%" and "90%" answers (average 83%), and 100% for "99%" answers. (I've been very consistently underconfident.) I'm from the UK and for many of the sporting questions I couldn't even tell you what sport they're about. This feels to me like pretty good performance but I have little real basis for that opinion.

[EDITED to add: my ... (read more)

1ChristianKl13y

Out of 363 guesses my average score is 8. I'm from Germany so my knowledge of some of the US specific stuff isn't good.

0asparisi14y

Well, you can get up to 99 points for being 99 percent confident and getting the right answer, or minus several hundred (I have yet to fail at a 99 so I don't know how many) for failing at that same interval. Wrong answers are, for the same confidence interval, more effective at bringing down your score than right answers are at bringing it up, so in some sense as long as you are staying positive you're doing good. But if you want to compare further, you'd have to take into account how many questions you've answered, as your lifetime total will be different depending on the questions you answer. (990 after 10 questions would be exceptional: best possible score. 990 after 1,000 questions means you are getting a little less than a point per question, overall)

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Credence calibration game FAQ

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Credence calibration game FAQ

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