satt comments on Open Thread, December 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I think so. In practice, changing the surface properties of a body in orbit can affect its temperature. If we coated the Moon with soot it would get hotter, and if we coated it in silver it would get colder.
Two key complications break this toy model:
P1 > P2 doesn't follow from the Sun having higher spectral power. The Sun being hotter just means it emits more power per unit area at its own surface, but our planet intercepts only a tiny fraction of that power.
The atmosphere likes to eat Earth's emissions much more than it likes to eat the Sun's. This allows P1 to be less than P2, and in fact it is. P2 > P1 implies P3/2 > P1, which turns the cooling into a warming.
The barrier metaphor's a bit dodgy because it suggests a mental picture of a wall that blocks incoming and outgoing radiation equally — or at least it does to me! (This incorrect assumption confused me when I was a kid and trying to figure out how the greenhouse effect worked.)
It's a false assumption, but it's not the assumption breaking your (first) model. It's possible to successfully model the greenhouse effect by pretending the atmosphere's a single isothermal layer with its own temperature.
The second model you sketch in your last 4 paragraphs sounds basically right, although the emission/absorption surface is some way below the tropopause. That surface is about 5km high, where the temperature's about -19°C, but the tropopause is 9-17km high. (Also, there's mixing way beyond the top of the troposphere because of turbulence.)