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gwern comments on Open Thread, December 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 01 December 2012 05:00AM

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Comment author: gwern 02 January 2013 07:27:05PM 0 points [-]

So I suspect you youngsters will probably have a similar letdown waiting for you when you reach your 40's and 50's, and realize that you'll wind up aging and dying like everyone else without having any technological miracles to rescue you.

So why don't we see an inverse Maes-Garreau effect, where predictors upon hitting their 40-50s are suddenly letdown and disenchanted and start making predictions for centuries out, rather than scores of years?

And what would you predict for the LW survey results? All 3 surveys ask for the age of the respondent, so there's plenty of data to correlate against, and we should be able to see any discouragement in the 40-50syo respondents.