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devas comments on A solvable Newcomb-like problem - part 2 of 3 - Less Wrong Discussion
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This seems interesting; however, it all hinges on part three, which I eagerly await.
Still, the option you seems to favour wouldn't guarantee a million dollar win, which is what happens if I one-box.
In an iterated version of the problem, this should work, but still... Now I'm really curious about what you're going to write next