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Decius comments on Most Likely Cause of an Apocalypse on December 21 - Less Wrong Discussion
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How about I take the opposite bet: It is either equally as likely or more likely that the world will end on December 22nd than on December 21st. If the world fails to end on either day, or ends on both days, you owe me one percent of your winnings from this bet; if the world ends on the 22nd and doesn't end on the 21st, you owe me the the total proceeds of your winnings. If the world ends on the 21st and not on the 22nd, I will match your winnings from this bet.
Deal?