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Decius comments on Most Likely Cause of an Apocalypse on December 21 - Less Wrong Discussion
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p~.00001: Israel and Palestine enter into open war, nuclear and/or biological weapons are used by the belligerents, and third parties escalate with each other; perhaps Iran retaliates against Israel and then a NATO country retaliates against Iran. I don't think such an event would stop human life, but I think it might stop civilization as we know it.