Information that surprises you is interesting as it exposes where you have been miscalibrated, and allows you to correct for that.
I suspect the users of LessWrong have fairly similar beliefs, so it is probable that information that has surprised you would surprise others here, so it would be useful for them if you shared them.
Example: In a discussion with a friend recently I realised I had massively miscalibrated on the percentage of the UK population who shared my beliefs on certain subjects, in general the population was far more conservative than I had expected.
Having some predictions on record helps answering this kind of question. The following are from my GJP forecasts:
the announcement of Mario Monti's imminent resignation; I'd been very sure (95% probability) he'd stay in power until the election, as that was only a few months away
the peace talks between Ansar Dine and the Malian government; I'd been skeptical (35% probability) that anyone would want to talk with such a ragtag bunch, and yet the talks just took place
Information that surprises you is interesting as it exposes where you have been miscalibrated, and allows you to correct for that.
I suspect the users of LessWrong have fairly similar beliefs, so it is probable that information that has surprised you would surprise others here, so it would be useful for them if you shared them.
Example: In a discussion with a friend recently I realised I had massively miscalibrated on the percentage of the UK population who shared my beliefs on certain subjects, in general the population was far more conservative than I had expected.
In retrospect I was assuming my own personal experience was more representative than it was, even when attempting to correct for that.