Having some predictions on record helps answering this kind of question. The following are from my GJP forecasts:

• the announcement of Mario Monti's imminent resignation; I'd been very sure (95% probability) he'd stay in power until the election, as that was only a few months away
• the peace talks between Ansar Dine and the Malian government; I'd been skeptical (35% probability) that anyone would want to talk with such a ragtag bunch, and yet the talks just took place