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Unnamed comments on Participation in the LW Community Associated with Less Bias - Less Wrong Discussion
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I'd like to know about correlations between questions: P(correctX|correctY), for all levels of exposure, and correcting for IQ if possible.
I remember having answered correctly the first four questions, so I was about to measure how exceptional I was by multiplying the correct answers rates for each (assuming strong LW exposure). That would be 58% × 93% × 93% × 57% = 29%, or above the top third. Yay! (After finding out that my IQ is most probably below the median here, I needed the ego boost.)
But I realized just before I actually performed the calculation that I was assuming independence between answers, as if the different biases studied there where not at all correlated. Which when I think about it seems to be a quite ridiculous assumption. But we have the data. What does it says?
Starting simpler:
22% of people who answered all 4 questions got all 4 "correct." Although question 4 (decoy effect) doesn't really have a correct answer on the individual level (it's only designed to be informative in the aggregate, like the anchoring question). 39% of those who answered the first 3 got all 3 correct.
Breaking that down by LW exposure:
High LW exposure: 32% got 4/4, 52% got 3/3.
Med LW exposure: 19% got 4/4, 38% got 3/3.
Low LW exposure: 14% got 4/4, 26% got 3/3.
Breaking the high LW exposure group down by Intelligence (keeping in mind that sample sizes are getting smaller here):
High LW exposure and top third Intelligence: 42% got 4/4, 61% got 3/3.
High LW exposure and mid third Intelligence: 29% got 4/4, 56% got 3/3.
High LW exposure and bottom third Intelligence: 27% got 4/4, 50% got 3/3.
High LW exposure and Intelligence left blank: 26% got 4/4, 35% got 3/3.
That should cover the question that motivated you. I could give some further breakdowns but there are a lot of them.