Yes, I haven't studied the LW sequence in detail, but I've read the arxiv.org draft, so I'm familiar with the argument. :-) (Are there important things in the LW sequence that are not in the draft, so that I should read that too? I remember you did something where agents had both a selfish and a global component to their utility function, that wasn't in the draft...) But from the techreport I got the impression that you were talking about actual SSA-using agents, not about the emergence of SSA-like behavior from ADT; e.g. on the last page, you say
Finally, it should be noted that a lot of anthropic decision problems can be solved without needing to work out the anthropic probabilities and impact responsibility at all (see for instance the approach in (Armstrong, 2012)).
which sounds as if you're contrasting two different approaches in the techreport and in the draft, not as if they're both about the same thing?
[And sorry for misspelling you earlier -- corrected now, I don't know what happened there...]
What I really meant is - the things in the tech report are fine as far as they go, but the Anthropic decision paper is where the real results are.
I agree with you that the isomorphism only holds if your reference class is suitable (and for selfish agents, you need to mess around with precommitments). The tech report does make some simplifying assumptions (as it's point was not to find the full condition for rigorous isomorphism results, but to illustrate that anthropic probabilities are not enough on their own).
A technical report of the Future of Humanity Institute (authored by me), on why anthropic probability isn't enough to reach decisions in anthropic situations. You also have to choose your decision theory, and take into account your altruism towards your copies. And these components can co-vary while leaving your ultimate decision the same - typically, EDT agents using SSA will reach the same decisions as CDT agents using SIA, and altruistic causal agents may decide the same way as selfish evidential agents.
Anthropics: why probability isn't enough
This paper argues that the current treatment of anthropic and self-locating problems over-emphasises the importance of anthropic probabilities, and ignores other relevant and important factors, such as whether the various copies of the agents in question consider that they are acting in a linked fashion and whether they are mutually altruistic towards each other. These issues, generally irrelevant for non-anthropic problems, come to the forefront in anthropic situations and are at least as important as the anthropic probabilities: indeed they can erase the difference between different theories of anthropic probability, or increase their divergence. These help to reinterpret the decisions, rather than probabilities, as the fundamental objects of interest in anthropic problems.