RobertLumley comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 17, chapter 86 - Less Wrong Discussion
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This is exactly how I read chapter 85, and now 86 confirmed it. My estimate is way over 10%, probably ~60%.
Same. Though... what about Tom Riddle?
What about Tom Riddle? He grew up, decided to conquer Britain, and, being clever, played both sides to do so.