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Qiaochu_Yuan comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 17, chapter 86 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Moody going after Lockhart is Moody privileging hypotheses involving Dark Wizards; nobody's a perfect rationalist in this story, and Moody's experience causes him to privilege hypotheses involving Dark Wizards and discount hypotheses involving Huge Wankers.
Well Lockhart sort of IS a dark wizard. From Moody's point of view he's someone obtaining power far faster and more effectively than he should, but even in reality he's someone who's systematically robbing people of their achievements and wiping memories.
He wasn't investigating Lockhart. He was investigating a Dark Wizard. Every hypothesis about a Dark Wizard involves a Dark Wizard.