I'm not claiming that the karma system successfully elicits insight-optimizing behaviour from LW participants (so, in particular, I don't think anything I've said is inconsistent with saying that some people can get more karma from pointing out the obvious than from racking their brain). Only that there's some correlation between karma and quality and that an intelligent, knowledgeable, wise person will (for any given level of effort and matchedness between their ideas and LW's collective prejudices and interests) tend to do better than someone less intelligent, knowledgeable and wise.
I still don't have anything I could reasonably call evidence for this, of course, but if you disagree with it then my casual observations apparently differ from yours.
So what's a third party to think? Well, obviously they should take your position more seriously than mine because you have a bit more karma than I do. No, wait ...
Precommitted to publishing this in Discussion to fight publication bias. It looks like intelligence (as measured by IQ, SAT scores, etc.) isn't meaningfully related to how much one posts to LW. Probably in the ideal case, they would be related and higher-IQ people would post more, but that doesn't appear to be going on either.
How well-educated you are doesn't seem to be much related to participation either. I'm not controlling for hours spent on LW for any of this, though.
Script output:
Script source here.