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CellBioGuy comments on UFAI cannot be the Great Filter - Less Wrong Discussion

35 Post author: Thrasymachus 22 December 2012 11:26AM

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Comment author: CellBioGuy 23 December 2012 01:03:44AM *  2 points [-]

I take issue with the assumption that the only two options are perpetual expansion of systems derived from an origin of life out into the universe, and destruction via some filter. The universe just might not be clement to expansion of life or life's products beyond small islands of habitability, like our world.

You cannot assume that the last few hundred years of our history is typical, or that you can expect similar exponentiation into the future. I would argue that it is a fantastic anomaly and regression to the mean is far more likely.

Comment author: RomeoStevens 23 December 2012 07:00:36PM 3 points [-]

it doesn't need to be for us, only for things we build.

Comment author: timtyler 23 December 2012 01:52:20AM 3 points [-]

I take issue with the assumption that the only two options are perpetual expansion of systems derived from an origin of life out into the universe, and destruction via some filter. The universe just might not be clement to expansion of life or life's products beyond small islands of habitability, like our world.

Right - but we can see how far apart the stars in our galaxy are, and roughly what it would take to travel between them. Intragalactic travel looks as though it will be relatively trivial - for advanced living systems.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 24 December 2012 04:40:16AM *  0 points [-]

I fail to see how your second sentence follows from your first. What do you mean by relatively trivial?

Comment author: orthonormal 26 December 2012 06:00:12AM *  3 points [-]

Human beings in the 1970s were able to throw a hefty chunk of metal (eventually) out of the Solar System, so interstellar travel doesn't require any future breakthroughs (though such breakthroughs would make it easier). See Project Orion for an early look at the feasibility of interstellar travel without space elevators, uploading, nanotechnology, or AI.