This post doesn't come close to refuting Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import.
Organizations have optimization power.
That's true, but intelligence as defined in this context is not merely optimization power, but efficient cross-domain optimization power. There are many reasons why the intelligence of AI+ greatly dwarfs that of human organizations; see Section 3.1 of the linked paper.
I think the world is already full of probably unfriendly supra-human intelligences...
This sounds similar to a position of Robin Hanson addressed in Footnote 25 of the linked paper.
It's not that I think the logic of this argument is incorrect so much as I think there is another related problem that we should be worrying about more.
The Singularity Institute is completely aware that there are other existential risks to humanity; its purpose is to deal with one of them. If you're looking for a more general organization to support, I'd suggest Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute.
I'm going to assert my position on them here without much argument because I think they are fairly sensible, but if any reader disagrees I will try to defend them in the comments.
This sounds awfully suspicious. Are you sure you don't have the bottom line precomputed?
I believe the implications of this line of reasoning may be profound.
How long did it take you to come up with this line of reasoning?
There are many reasons why the intelligence of AI+ greatly dwarfs that of human organizations; see Section 3.1 of the linked paper.
Since an organization's optimization power includes optimization power gained from information technology, I think that the "AI Advantages" in section 3.1 mostly apply just as well to organizations. Do you see an exception?
This sounds similar to a position of Robin Hanson addressed in Footnote 25 of the linked paper.
Ah, thanks for that. I think I see your point: rogue AI could kill everybody, whereas a domina...
If I understand the Singularitarian argument espoused by many members of this community (eg. Muehlhauser and Salamon), it goes something like this:
I'm in danger of getting into politics. Since I understand that political arguments are not welcome here, I will refer to these potentially unfriendly human intelligences broadly as organizations.
Smart organizations
By "organization" I mean something commonplace, with a twist. It's commonplace because I'm talking about a bunch of people coordinated somehow. The twist is that I want to include the information technology infrastructure used by that bunch of people within the extension of "organization".
Do organizations have intelligence? I think so. Here's some of the reasons why:
I talked with Mr. Muehlhauser about this specifically. I gather that at least at the time he thought human organizations should not be counted as intelligences (or at least as intelligences with the potential to become superintelligences) because they are not as versatile as human beings.
...and then...
I think that Muehlhauser is slightly mistaken on a few subtle but important points. I'm going to assert my position on them without much argument because I think they are fairly sensible, but if any reader disagrees I will try to defend them in the comments.
Mean organizations
* My preferred standard of rationality is communicative rationality, a Habermasian ideal of a rationality aimed at consensus through principled communication. As a consequence, when I believe a position to be rational, I believe that it is possible and desirable to convince other rational agents of it.