Thanks for this response, Luke.
I don't want to argue about definitions either.
I believe I'm familiar with how you use the term rationality. I believe it's compatible with (mutually reinforcing with) communicative rationality for the most part, though I believe there are some differences between Habermas' and Yudkowsky's epistemologies. I brought up communicative rationality because (a) I think it's an important concept that is in some ways an advance in how to think about rationality and, (b) I wanted to disclose some of my own predispositions and values for the sake of establishing expectations.
Thanks for the link to the Hanson-Yudkowsky debate. From perusing the summary and a few of the posts by the debaters, I guess I'd say I find Hanson's counterarguments largely compelling. I'd also respond with two other points (mostly hoping you will direct me to where they've already been discussed):
Since the computational complexity of so many kinds of problems has been proven to be within certain complexity classes, recursive improvement in algorithms alone is likely to hit asymptotic walls for a lot of interesting domains. So, self-modifying AI alone, without taking resources into account, seems unlikely (maybe provably impossible) to be a big threat.
That said, since there already are self-modifying intelligent organizations that are taking over the world (or trying to, facing competition from each other), what's gone into Singularity research definitely isn't useless. Rather, it's directly applicable to what's happening right now.
I agree very strongly with the thrust of what IlyaShpitser's been saying.
(maybe provably impossible)
If it is provably impossible, I would feel much better with a proof; this seems like a reasonable goal for SingIst, to look at proofs of computational complexity and upper limits on computer power, and get an upper limit on the optimization power of an AI (perhaps a few estimates conditional on some problems being in different categories or new best algorithms being found); then to come up with some reasonable way of measuring lower and upper bounds on the optimization power of various organizations (at least a generous upper ...
If I understand the Singularitarian argument espoused by many members of this community (eg. Muehlhauser and Salamon), it goes something like this:
I'm in danger of getting into politics. Since I understand that political arguments are not welcome here, I will refer to these potentially unfriendly human intelligences broadly as organizations.
Smart organizations
By "organization" I mean something commonplace, with a twist. It's commonplace because I'm talking about a bunch of people coordinated somehow. The twist is that I want to include the information technology infrastructure used by that bunch of people within the extension of "organization".
Do organizations have intelligence? I think so. Here's some of the reasons why:
I talked with Mr. Muehlhauser about this specifically. I gather that at least at the time he thought human organizations should not be counted as intelligences (or at least as intelligences with the potential to become superintelligences) because they are not as versatile as human beings.
...and then...
I think that Muehlhauser is slightly mistaken on a few subtle but important points. I'm going to assert my position on them without much argument because I think they are fairly sensible, but if any reader disagrees I will try to defend them in the comments.
Mean organizations
* My preferred standard of rationality is communicative rationality, a Habermasian ideal of a rationality aimed at consensus through principled communication. As a consequence, when I believe a position to be rational, I believe that it is possible and desirable to convince other rational agents of it.