In addition to what the others said on this thread, I'd like to say that my main problem was with the author's attitude, not the accuracy of his proposed law -- though the fact that it apparently has glaring holes in it doesn't really help. When you discover that your law has huge exceptions (such as f.ex. "all crustaceans" or "Mercury"), the thing to do is to postulate hidden planets, or discover relativity, or introduce a term representing dark energy, or something. The thing not to do is to say, "oh well, every law has exceptions, this is good enough for me, case closed ! Let's pretend that crustaceans don't exist, we're done".
Well, that's useful advice to the Newtonians, alright - 'hey guys, why did you let the Mercury anomaly linger for decades/centuries? All you had to do was invent relativity! Just ask Bugmaster!'
I wasn't aware West had retired and was eagerly awaiting his Nobel phone call.
However, it is almost equally as silly to take a few data points, and extrapolate them far into the future without any concern for what you're doing. Ultimately, you can draw a straight line through any two points, but that doesn't mean that a child will be over 5m tall at age 20 just because he grew 25cm in a year.
Why do you think the existing dataset is analogous to your silly example?
How so ? Perhaps more importantly, if "diminishing returns has clearly set in for humanity" as you say, then what does that tell you for our prospects of bringing about the actual Singularity ?
Not much.
Well, that's useful advice to the Newtonians, alright - 'hey guys, why did you let the Mercury anomaly linger for decades/centuries? All you had to do was invent relativity! Just ask Bugmaster!'
There's a difference between acknowledging the problems with your "fundamental law" (once they become apparent, of course) but failing to fix them for "decades/centuries"; vs. boldly ignoring them because "all laws have exceptions, them's the breaks". It's possible that West is not doing the latter, but the article does imply that th...
If I understand the Singularitarian argument espoused by many members of this community (eg. Muehlhauser and Salamon), it goes something like this:
I'm in danger of getting into politics. Since I understand that political arguments are not welcome here, I will refer to these potentially unfriendly human intelligences broadly as organizations.
Smart organizations
By "organization" I mean something commonplace, with a twist. It's commonplace because I'm talking about a bunch of people coordinated somehow. The twist is that I want to include the information technology infrastructure used by that bunch of people within the extension of "organization".
Do organizations have intelligence? I think so. Here's some of the reasons why:
I talked with Mr. Muehlhauser about this specifically. I gather that at least at the time he thought human organizations should not be counted as intelligences (or at least as intelligences with the potential to become superintelligences) because they are not as versatile as human beings.
...and then...
I think that Muehlhauser is slightly mistaken on a few subtle but important points. I'm going to assert my position on them without much argument because I think they are fairly sensible, but if any reader disagrees I will try to defend them in the comments.
Mean organizations
* My preferred standard of rationality is communicative rationality, a Habermasian ideal of a rationality aimed at consensus through principled communication. As a consequence, when I believe a position to be rational, I believe that it is possible and desirable to convince other rational agents of it.