New Year's Prediction Thread (2013)

Thomas

Try to predict something important in a way, that it will be easy to judge it in 2014, how (in)accurate your predictions really were. Don't leave too much space for a doubt what was really said.

By the end of 2014 the average observer in a city with a population over 300,000 in the United States will see a drone aircraft in the sky once a month or more. By 2017, every day.

My understanding is that most drones simply aren't visible because they're small and high up and light colored, and this is why drone operators can do things like loiter over a house for several hours without the inhabitants and villagers going 'Oh my god! There's an American drone hanging around! Quick go tell our Taliban guy to abort today's mission!'

1Eugine_Nier13y

Probability?

4tgb13y

Interesting prediction, but I think you're over-estimating the effectiveness of "an average observer." Unless you mean "someone who explicitly is looking for such things" when you say "observer." I go days or weeks without noticing planes in the sky; am I significantly below average as an observer, are drones in cities going to be much more common than planes here, or are drones much more noticeable than planes by 2017? I think one of those would have to be true for this to happen, and I would find any of them surprising.

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New Year's Prediction Thread (2013)

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New Year's Prediction Thread (2013)

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